Limbaugh Speaks On Death (of Others)

There has been commentary across the internet pointing out some of the vicious things being said about Rush Limbaugh as he lay in a Hawaiian hospital, hopefully moving toward recovery.

And what words has Limbaugh sown?

“Mr. Revkin,” Limbaugh asked, “why don’t you just go kill yourself and help the planet by dying?”

(Columbia Journalism Review)

Sticks and stones may break our bones, but words will never hurt us.

What Do Limbaugh, Rick Warren and New York State All Have In Common?

People in trouble, no Lassie to tell us:

• Rush Limbaugh is in trouble: Heart in Hawaii flipflopping.
• Saddleback Church and Rick Warren are in trouble: Budget shortfalls of $900,000.
• New York is in trouble: General fund is taking a hit with first time negative $174 million balance.

Which one of these three stories is the most important? The difficulty on the personal level, on the business level (the church) or on the statewide level? Obvious of course where our attention should be focused.

Those voicing some of the strongest populist sentiment and hoping to stick it toWall Street are probably not connecting all the dots or realizing the full impact of  a collapsed or struggling financial sector. They never fully grasp how those high salaries flow down into the arms, hands, and pockets of so many businesses, and back to the public in the form of taxes to the state. Bankers keep New York's arteries pumping.

“New York State is officially living paycheck to paycheck,” said Thomas P. DiNapoli , the state comptroller, whose responsibilities include managing New York’s finances. “The state is starting the new year by scrambling to make payments and juggle money.”

While New York’s fiscal year does not end until March 31, its cash shortage could force it to borrow more money to pay for its daily operations, adding to the interest on loans that already costs $1 billion a year. And the financial problems will raise alarms among rating agencies that are already keeping a close eye on New York’s credit-worthiness, with the risk of a lower credit rating — and higher interest payments to future bondholders — already looming.

(N.Y. Times)

What is amusing is the state missing pension payments and shorting the school districts while prayerfully awaiting January and Wall Street's bonus payouts. They had better pray that those bonuses are indeed generous, though it will not be enough to prevent the doozy of a financial heart attack facing the state.

Oh, what was that? Oh yea, almost forgot,

• Europe is in trouble: One of the lesser EU nations (meaning YOU Greece) might default on their national debt causing havoc and rolling us all back into prehistoric times. (We exaggerate, if only to leave the actually reality comforting in its non hyperbolic badness). 

Iran Spasms

While cruising around the internet, we took a look at this video from Iran posted to commentator Andrew Sullivan's blog (at Atlantic Monthly) via Youtube. We've not offered a lot of thoughts on what is going on there, as the situation is fluid; the tendency is to want to see profound change and miss the nuances. Others can put it in far better perspective. But it is truly amazing to see a crowd of Mousavi (reform) supporters confronting security forces and appearing to win in the confrontation (or rather, not get themselves all killed). Opposition forces have been killed over the weekend, including leader Mousavi's son. The Iranian government suggests that he was killed in a drive by (as though this were L.A. circa 1990's)

• Sullivan's post
• WSJ on arrested dissidents
• Israel contemplates Iran attack in 2010 
• The Empire (Iran) strikes back
  

New Jersey and Midwest and Gold Lead With Some Good Eco News

Needing some good economic news as you sit there at home or in the office with nothing better to do? Let's begin in the great state of New Jersey, home of all things that we can't quite put our finger on. It's an odd place in some ways, a state with no cities. (Newark, that Paterson, that Trenton, that Hoboken, that Camden...uhm NO!... those are nothing like N.Y.C., Philly, L.A., Miami, Atlanta). And yet, it's still an important place, home of good universities, pharmaceutical and biotech companies, and people happier working in Manhattan. Yet, commercial rental stats from the state are important, and things are looking up. Marginally. Experts in that state saw vacancy rights falling slightly in December.

If you get enough of this positive news out there, consumer confidence surely gets bolstered. Often mass perception lags reality, and it takes a group of statistically positive trends before people begin to accept that things are actually getting better.

Not to be outdone, and in a different category, Reuters tells us that the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for Chicago rose to 60 in December from 56.1 in November, and above predictions.

It's these little bits of positive economic news that annoy us when we here blanket dismissal of Federal (meaning Obama Administration) efforts to stimulate the economy. The process of stabilization began under Bush with the creation of the TARP, and while there has been waste aplenty and a certain amount of "What should we do now" with the stimulus, it is still amazing to see things looking better only a year after near collapse.

Of course we will know things are really fine when the price of gold begins to collapse, or perhaps the more correct term, revert to norm. Unhappy gold investors with inverted smiles are the best indicator that America is fairing well.

Today gold has been down on a strong dollar, but these day to day things are meaningless, sort of. All we can say is that if the economic indicators continue to come in incrementally positive, it's a matter of time before the red line on this chart nosedives.

 (Kitco.co)

Full Body Scans for Republicans Missing Yemen Cruise Missile Action

If you are American, and black, you have to be a little worried about this most recent terrorist incident, and the effects on those of similar skin color. While the well educated youngster from a largely responsible family was Nigerian, his appearance broadens the mental picture that we create when we think "terrorist". Not good.

Which is why the implementation of full body scans is by far the least intrusive method to harmonize safety without over the top pure profiling. If you can't use technology, then you are compelled to work off visual cues or statistical appearance data and that bodes badly for one of America's most traditional populations.

In some ways it's the standardized testing argument that can be found in education. The black community has often sided with parts of the education community in their disdain for standardized testing. The alternatives, like portfolio creation, do not in fact make for an evaluation method that is any less susceptible to racial bias. The person doing the evaluation is still subject to their own personal bias, while the standardized test presents information, if theoretically biased (and we don't concede that there really is bias), that is widely available. You can prepare for it, and very little of it is information the average American would find foreign. You cannot prepare to overcome human bias.

Which leads us back to the situation at  the airports. The body scanning technology provides a way to "test" everyone, without resorting primarily to appearance. Granted you will probably have a certain amount of profiling that is always necessary, but the use of technology is a far less biased route.

Already the politicians are sparring and trying to get in front of the issue. The head of the House Homeland Security Committee is against profiling, without offering a valid alternative.  Absurdity abounds.

"You pat down every person who's suspicious. I don't think you have to target people," Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), told MSNBC. "This Swedish grandmother could just as well be a part of a terrorist plot as anyone else. So I think we have to be very careful when we try to target people." 

(The Hill)

I'm betting you can put about 10,000 Swedish grandmoms on planes around the world and the likelihood of disaster is betwen non-existent, as in zero, or some negative number value, where planes begin to materialize out of nowhere, as opposed to disappearing in explosions. Or a sudden explosion of meatballs materializing ala Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs. (Great flick by the way).

The solution, civil libertarians be darned, is to use technology broadly versus profiling narrowly or not at all.

*

Other News:

• Republicans are saying the Administration is soft on terrorism.while Republican Senator Jim DeMint simultaneously holds up the naming of a new head for the Transportation Security Administration. Discounting Obama's escalation of resources to Afghanistan and actions in Pakistan, if you squint, and close your mind, maybe the Republicans are right. On the other hand, the fact that Obama fired cruise missiles, two of them, into Yemen a week or so before the Detroit plane bombing attempt tells you he is probably not quite so soft after all.

• Over at True/Slant, healthcare policy expert Rick Ungar asks how old are you, and how much you need Obama to hold your hand with this latest terrorist escapade.  

Consumer Confidence Rises, Jim Dement Blocks, Housing Flatlines

Sometimes bad news is good news. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in major metropolitan areas, was largely flat from September to October. The index had been rising for several months. While rising prices for a widely owned asset is generally good, much of our housing stock is probably at slightly more than fair value. To the extent that home prices stabilize at or below current prices levels, we are that much closer to wringing out the excess in expectations. People seem to expect some reversion to an inflated mean, when in fact we should expect prices to revert to a pre-boom norm. At this stage we want neither the stock market or the housing market to be floating above reality. People need to recognize their losses, and take them.  When the senior economist at Wells Fargo says "What may happen is that prices will plow along the bottom for a year or two," we say nonsense to that. That bottom should be considered the norm (meaning, some economically rational midpoint with prices drifting slight below it, and slightly above).

*

In other happy economic news, consumer confidence is up for the second strait month, according to the Conference Board.  If we combine that with Mastercard's estimate of a 3.6% rise in holiday spending, (an excluding autos), we can find some measure of satisfaction in all of these numbers. This does not bode well for Republicans, who may be forced to re-frame the entire election picture in 2010 around terrorism (as they have done in the past).

*

Other News:

• Ladies get your ya ya's out. Karl Rove, mastermind of Republican politics (and politics that included a distinctly family values message), is divorced and free to really get his rove on. Perhaps this personal situation will compel Rove to be more expansive in the types of issues advice he gives to those who hire him. While the Bible can be a great tool for helping create family values, quality policy that eases family burdens can also support family values. 

• South Carolina Senator Jim Dement blocks new TSA chief for no reason other than the nominee's undefined position on allowing TSA agents to unionize. Thankfully this does not come at a time when strangers from Africa are trying to blow up U.S. planes. Ha ha. Oh wait, yes it does. 

I Will Not Osculate Jim Cameron's Avatar

I saw James Cameron's Avatar recently. Most critics have found occasion to bless it as an amazing piece of filmmaking. A furious amount of buttox osculation has come from every corner. The stupendous box office receipts confirm that we have a phenomena on our hands. There have been critics amidst the praise, and I cast my lot with them. Discernment about the quality of this film, its ability to tell a creative story, is sorely missing. Minds are swamped with Christmas and holiday jovial delusion.

Avatar Oh Avatar, how I hate thee. Let me bullet point the ways:

• When is it okay to bang some guy's daughter, and especially some chief's daughter, without following some sort of protocol or process? Obviously Jake Sully's Pandora behavior guide was written by Captain Kirk.

• Is there no native Pandoran to lead them to safety? Why does it always take a Tom Cruise or a Kevin Costner or a John Smith to mobilize the natives?  Are there no other stories to tell? Maybe have a blue Na'vi head off to some far away tribe, discover anti-spaceship weapons, and return with some kick ass warriors from the far side of the plain? Yea, no. Sandra Bullock will save you (if you are a black youth with football skills). A soccer team will save South Africa (if you are Mandela, and need help pulling the country together). See a trend in how films are constructed? It's not necessarily bad, it's just reductive, repetitive movie-making.

• The battle scene was straight out of Return of the Jedi. The Na'vi, in Ewok mode, battle the evil Americans with makeshift natural stuff and some help from supernatural forces and the beasts of the field. How the hell is that remotely possible? I mean seriously, if any of that native mystical spiritual nonsense had any viability, Native Americans would have defended North America from European expansion and we would not be sitting here watching movies telling us that nonsense like that would work against hardened military power. Excuse me for my literalism while I excuse you for your flights of ridiculous fancy. A friend of mine said he just could not see the comparison, because in Jedi the Imperial forces had different vehicles than the Americans in Avatar as each marched through the forest. You know, because in Jedi they had four legs and in Avatar they had two and walked upright. Same forest, same mechanized humanoid, animaloid machines, same primitive people with sticks and stones, same death scene with crying Na'vi/Ewoks. Other than that, totally different. Shush friend of mine.

• Didn't I see this in Pocahontas circa 1995? White interloper, hot chief daughter, learning about the land and love. A jealous warrior. Searching for gold or other resources. A talking wise tree? Floating crap that signifies some spiritual blessing?

• Killing contractors for the American government is quite okay apparently. It was an odd experience, knowing  that thousands of similar contractors are busy in Iraq and Afghanistan providing a host of services, including protecting, feeding and assisting regular American military units.

• James Cameron did a nice little switch near the end, with the stark ravingly angry Colonel Miles Quaritch accusing Jake of being a traitor to his race. It was a nice switch, because the real argument and line of focus wold have been Jake being a traitor to his fellow Americans. But Cameron knew that might make people more reflective about what they are observing (the killing of American military personnel over the Christmas holiday while a good portion of those active and former personnel are overseas fighting), so narrow it all down to a racial issue, and better to make the good Colonel worthy of his eventual and entirely predictable death. Indeed you knew the minute you met him that he would not come out of the movie intact. He was actually my favorite part of the movie, taking care of business without benefit of his oxygen mask. In a real jam, who would you want on your side... the Na'vi jilted warrior, or Quaritch? Liar. You know it's Quaritch. 

• Scientists take one for the team with Sigourney Weaver dying. But it's a noble death, so scientists the world over can feel confident that their status is okay. They are not evil like the military guys. They are into discovery and research and blue sky pursuits of knowledge. Meanwhile the entire film is a frontal attack on technology and progress. 

• We could blast the film for its devotion to vague spirituality in the form of pantheism. But it's Hollywood, and we have been conditioned to accept natives swaying back and forth in a healing/goddess ceremony, but bust out in laughter, anger or resentment at any serious depictions of Christian religious activity like prayer, laying on hands, vigorous singing or shouting. 'Cause Christian stuff is just crazy and the cause of every evil in the world. (It's not, but, well, you know how people are). 

I left the film awed by the technological skill, but modern societies are like that. We do things pretty well. It's amazing the amount of technology and money that went into this ode to primitivism. How not ironic.

Private and Public Sectors Married, Give Out Cash to L.A. Teachers

Just another reminder that the government is no more inefficient than the private sector. As previously stated, private sector waste and error falls into the dustbin of collapsed companies, when not continuing year after year with faulty product and bad service. You can never make a valuable policy analysis based on the oft repeated mantra that the private sector is somehow less wasteful or more competent.

In California we have the nation's second largest school district-- L.A. Unified --overpaying employees, then demanding the money back, and with some refusing to return the money and forcing court action.

The conservative side of our brain will immediately leap to snark and easy criticism and link this payroll error into a larger diatribe about the general incompetence found in public education. "We need to free up the private sector to find modern solutions to today's educational needs," McCain would be saying ,if he were not too busy doing nothing. (Which of course he is pretty busy doing). Last heard he was busy criticizing the Obama for not speaking out on Iran, about a day after Obama spoke out on Iran.

But let's read on, and not put ideas in Senator McCain's head.

"It was a devastating blow, an eye-opener for the world to see how incompetent people were in the district," said A.J. Duffy, president of United Teachers Los Angeles, which represents district teachers.

"I think the district is vastly different now, but what's still there is a bureaucratic mentality," he said.
Duffy said he's working amicably with senior officials to "resolve these issues one way or another," but he said some lower-level staffers, for example, refuse to review an employee's documentation that conflicts with calculations made by L.A. Unified.

Repairs and other problems related to the $95-million system cost the district at least $37 million; the district received nearly half of that amount in a settlement with the vendor Deloitte Consulting, a subsidiary of Deloitte Touche.

(L.A. Times)

Here we have the public and private sectors united in incompetence and a fitting example that nothing is simply simple. And what's up with the greedy employees and teachers mysteriously on leave and getting overpaid? If we suddenly received an extra few thousand in our check, we would immediately notify someone, or, spend the cash with the full anticipation that we would be paying it back. Perhaps use it as an up front loan, knowing that paying it back can often be negotiated into monthly installments.

Umar, the Plane, Avatars, Princesses, Ewoks, and Annoyances.... and Jesus!

"I was making rather merry sir," said I to my reflection in the mirror, body several pounds heavier after a near week of holiday indulgence. Shall we count the ways? Turducken, macaroni and cheese with sausage, sausage stuffing, cajun stuffing, gumbo, garlic mashed potatoes, Brussels sprouts (have not acquired taste for them yet), rolls, Jamaican beef patties, strawberry flavored cake with chocolate frosting, strawberry Crush, fried chicken, and chocolate chip pancakes.

A bit too much gluttony and not enough Jesus, so let's flip the topic, and set mirrors aside.

For the most part there was nothing terribly important happening if you discount attempts to blow up planes headed to Detroit, and major protests and killing in Iran. Which, if not fully slothed we ought not to discount. In a land where we can stuff a debonded chicken inside of a deboned duck inside of a turkey, it's a bit of surprise that we cannot debone a potential terrorist before he stuffs himself onto a plane, only to be thwarted by alert passengers. Some will take this as a sign of lax security under the Obama administration, but it's more a trend.

Oh Umar, don't you know that Americans are not inclined to sit and let their fellow passengers pull out guns, matches, lighters, bazookas, or nail files anymore? What particularly hurts though, is the spread of this Al Queda nonsense to the black African population. If you don't see a potential racial profiling catastrophe in the making, hold your breath a short bit. While profiling is needed, it won't be welcome to American blacks who will bear the brunt of African stupidity. If you are black, get your flying out of your system fast before you become primary search targets (if you are not already). Thank you Umar, foolish 23 year old.

*

I recently saw the movie Avatar. It made a ton of money this weekend along with Sherlock Holmes and the chipmunk flick. I grew very tired through the first half, angry through the middle half, and slightly entertained during the final half, none of it the film making any more real sense than three halves making a whole. I learned a lot. Military contractors and ex-military are war mongers and violent (and despite the might work these same folks do on behalf of the military around the world, hired guns or not). Paganism is good. Technology is bad. Being a traitor is good. Capitalism is bad. Tribal medicine is good. Scientists are good (but worthy of death as punishment for their flawed scientific ways). In the Captain Kirk and Pocahontas tradition, screwing strange females in the new world is always good, and especially if they are the daughters of tribal chiefs. Saving innocent primitives is good, but can only be accomplished if you are white (or on rare occasion, a highly paid black person like Denzel Washington or Morgan Freeman)... primitives cannot, ever, save themselves.

Mostly I learned that director James Cameron has not an original thought in his head, and that a lot of critics and the public have been duped under the spell of the light and technology show. If I wanted to see Return of the Jedi and Pocahontas wrapped up in the same film--with a little Dances with Wolves-- I would do so. The final battle in Avatar was so close to the ridiculous Ewok triumph in Return of the Jedi that I found myself rooting for the Imperial Americans (go figure) and against the absurd idea that vague gods and the natural world will bail you out of your own isolated backward lifestyle. It was disturbing hearing the audience totally sublime to the idea of Americans dying when so many Americans, some 5,000, have died in our two ongoing wars.

It's is often amazing that Native Americans are praised for being close to the earth and the true occupiers of the Americas, when in fact, they too traveled here to these shores. If the world all flowed out of Africa, we can assume that those who were pretty strong and well equipped made it the farthest in an early human version of survival of the fittest with physical might making right. Getting to the North American continent first does not bestow perpetual rights, or greater spirituality. It just means you were first, and like every nationality on earth, you must build up a culture than withstand others, or watch it fade or get pushed aside. That is life, which is not fair. Or rather, it's equally fair at random to everyone, dispensing destruction to every ethnic group at some time or another.


Other News:


Iranians continue to protest their government, and the government continues to strike back through violence and denial of wrongdoing. This is exceedingly important, though we in the West typically don't have a good read on individual country's internal politics. Meaning, we have a habit of backing future enemies. A Marcel Marceu policy is probably needed.

Popular New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd allows her brother a moment to rant, and one can picture him proudly showing the column to his friends and colleagues. He may never realize that his sister has pulled down his pants in public by virtue of her generosity. One wonders why the Times would let a columnist subcontract out to family members, even if it was done merely to make a point about people's stupidity, gullibility and lack of self awareness.

Federal spending rose 4%, so Obama is somewhat of a liar. However, Federal spending rose less than the average in the previous 10 years. Thus, a liar who performs better than the previous group of liars. (And honestly, we think it's near impossible, regardless of party, to accurately predict growth or spending, so best estimates are excepted and somewhat ignored).

Crucifying Goldman With Old Nails On Eve of Jesus' Birthday

Here is yet another article that leads with Goldman, Sachs and ends with the implied accusation that somehow the big investment banks did something wrong by selling a product that allowed buyers to bet on the health of the housing industry while hedging their own exposure to those sales.

Gretchen Morgenson tells us nothing new, or nothing really criminal. Here you have big sophisticated buyers who bought collateralized debt obligations (C.D.O's) or bet on them, because they were optimistic on the direction of the mortgage market. The reporters writing these pieces, and who had no wisdom at the time, seem to be saying that Goldman and other firms should have immediately stopped selling the products despite the demand. Goldman at all times, and presumably across all products, should be in harmony with what their clients buy. Utter nonsense. Across industries companies hedge their exposure to products they sell, and that should be even more the case when trading financial assets.

When you are selling financial products that are constructed like a financial equation, and where your firm is a fixed entity in that equation in some cases, you then hedge your exposure so you don't lose. It's like someone having a yard sale. Yes you kinda like your junk, and you bought it all at one point, but eventually you realize you are not so high on that lamp or that sofa, and you get rid of it to someone who still thinks it has value.  Or maybe it's more like some insurance company selling you home insurance, and then taking the money you paid in premiums and making some wise investment with that money in case you or bad luck wrecks your home.

But not quite. Goldman was betting against its own products, so it would be like an insurer selling insurance, then making some sort of bet against your actual house with the premiums.

“The simultaneous selling of securities to customers and shorting them because they believed they were going to default is the most cynical use of credit information that I have ever seen,” said Sylvain R. Raynes, an expert in structured finance at R & R Consulting in New York. “When you buy protection against an event that you have a hand in causing, you are buying fire insurance on someone else’s house and then committing arson.”

(N.Y. Times)

Yea, yea. The commentary is all back seat driving about an industry that needed more up front supervision or regulation. The criticisms amount to Goldman having to be equally delusional, or, to turn down sales business and focus all their efforts on negative bets on mortgages. Neither option leads to more peace of mind because Goldman did not cause the problem the country faced. It was one small part of a flawed market that began with the people obtaining home mortgages they could not afford in any market climate.

*

Other News:

• 
  

  Democrats are in a super good mood now that a healthcare reform bill has been signed. Republicans will probably spend part of the vacay meeting up and trying to come up with the most effective demonization path to sway the voters before 2010 elections. One of the big criticisms of Obama has been that he is forever talking and never producing. He is in over his head. But you can't talk about his ineffectiveness when he manages to change something nobody has been able to do despite numerous attempts.
  

  "The Senate’s action also brings Obama to the brink of signing into law the kind of reforms that have eluded presidents from Teddy Roosevelt to Bill Clinton."
  

  and
  

  “This is for my friend Ted Kennedy. Aye,” said Byrd, who turned 92 last month and has missed much of the year due to illness. Obama called Kennedy's widow, Vicki Reggie Kennedy, who also watched the vote from the gallery, after the Senate passed the bill.
  

  (The Hill)
  

  
  If Democrats get out there and sell the benefits and push, Republicans will have a hard time turning Obama's victory into electoral failure.
  
  

• Initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since September 2008, which is another economic sign that the Republicans better have a back up plan for running on economic issues without some solid ideas.

• Snowing in Midwest-Rudolf annoyed. Don't go there!  But Santa has to go there and you can track him (as can Al Queda, hmmm), even though, well, you know. Just remember that if you are a single mom and also my girlfriend, your child will know that no fat fake senior citizen with homosexual reindeer gave them that awesome gift.(Depending on how much they like it. If they hate it, that's all on Santa and good luck next year). 

• New York Magazine makes head of Goldman, Sachs look sexy.

Ebenezer Faces Rush Home To Make Merry

It's amazing what the threat of travel slowing snowstorms and the soon arrival of Santa can do to light the fire under Republicans. The Republicans have backed off a late night healthcare reform bill vote, agreeing to handle business early in the morning so everyone can get home in a timely fashion to make merry and eat their Christmas goose. The shenanigous delays were ridiculous to begin with, what with forcing 92 year-old man Senator Byrd to be rolled in for each carefully timed, and delayed, vote.

(The Ebenezer faces realize that you want to get home to your folks and have a little figgy pudding and maybe some pheasant with oyster stuffing. So you may go home after the 8 a.m. vote with time left over to walk through the market with Tiny Tim)

*

Maureen Dowd at the N.Y. Times asks "Who is the real John McCain?" and we know the answer. We suspect that now that his shot at the presidency is over, his lottery ticket not a winner, that he is now free to be his true self and follow impulses that he previously tried to obscure while courting the praise of the press. So long as he was the maverick, he could perhaps ride that status to the POTUS position. Having fumbled the ball during his panic of a campaign, he now knows he does not need to appear to be acceptable to everyone (just the crowd back in Arizona). We know  who the real McCain is. It's like a Scooby Doo episode turned on its ear, where we pull off the non-scary mask and suddenly see the true villain. The reflection of John McCain in the mirror is Dorian Gray.

*

Good news for the taxpayer. The TARP facility is pulling a profit thus far, and with the bulk of the money paid back. This outcome was not hard to predict unless one had a vested interest (politician, gold bugs, libertarians) in it all not working out. If only the Fed didn't exist, the Treasury didn't overstep, and everything just collapsed in peace, some long time gold investor is saying to himself, upset over how it's all not falling apart.

Total repayments by TARP banks should top $175 billion by the end of 2010, cutting taxpayer exposure to the sector by three-quarters, the Treasury estimated.

TARP programs aimed at stabilizing the banking system will earn a profit from dividends, interest, early repayments, and the sale of warrants, it added. Bank investments of $245 billion in Treasury's 2009 fiscal year were initially projected to cost $76 billion, but are now forecast to generate a profit.

(Marketwatch.com)

Avatar Wants You To Go Native, Challenge Authority, and Kill It

I am a movie junkie, but not as bad as the hard core junkies. I can't quote every famous line, nor can I name all the films by the most obscure of actors like one of my friends can.. But I love movies and the experience of sitting in the theatre away from the reality of the world. (Which perhaps, makes me less the movie junkie and more the escapist).

Hollywood has unleashed a fair batch of entertaining flicks this holiday period and the three I am looking forward to are Sherlock Holmes, Avatar and Up in the Air. Up in the Air in particular seems like it will be the most rewarding despite being on the tail end of the economic curve, what with its George Clooney main character traveling the country helping corporations lay people off. Given recent economic indicators, the layoff trend is probably at or near its apex, if it didn't hit that back in October.

Avatar has been grabbing all the press and attention, and largely for James Cameron's impressive use of technology in this film and across his directing career. I will see the movie even though I will surely be bludgeoned to death and annoyed by its message. It's a retelling of imperialism, or America run amok, with the innocent Na'vi people as the recipients of our avarice and aggression. With all our technology and military and capitalistic ways we are destroying those who are close to the earth and living a truer more natural existence, as Cameron would have it. The main character makes the choice to fight against his homeland (the U.S.), in order to preserve the purity of the other society.

In other words we are asked to root for a traitor to U.S. goals and side with nature.

Ross Douthat writes about the movie, and Hollywood's substitution of pantheism in place of more rigorous religious expression. Like Buddhism (as practiced by many Americans), pantheism is vague enough to be quite comfortable for those seeking a system of belief that does not require anything that might overwhelm personal inclinations. It also dovetails with the current environmental movement, allowing you to feel spiritual while buying your compact fluorescent bulbs at Walgreens. You need never step into a church, or forgive, or otherwise inconvenience yourself, because you are too busy being a steward of the earth in its entirety, one small footprint at a time. Human individuals get lost shuffle and are considered only in platitude under the phrase "future generations."

Douthat reminds us that nature can be as brutal as any God, and that deifying nature does not account for the nature of evil, since in nature all things are as they are (without moral judgment).

The question is whether Nature actually deserves a religious response. Traditional theism has to wrestle with the problem of evil: if God is good, why does he allow suffering and death? But Nature is suffering and death. Its harmonies require violence. Its “circle of life” is really a cycle of mortality. And the human societies that hew closest to the natural order aren’t the shining Edens of James Cameron’s fond imaginings. They’re places where existence tends to be nasty, brutish and short.

Religion exists, in part, precisely because humans aren’t at home amid these cruel rhythms. We stand half inside the natural world and half outside it. We’re beasts with self-consciousness, predators with ethics, mortal creatures who yearn for immortality.

(N.Y. Times)

Douthat quotes Alexis de Tocqueville and both of them have a good fix on this move away from individualism and toward a vast concept of "oneness."

Then there are those who would protest all of this say, "It's just a movie, relax." Perhaps. After all, James Cameron is no Leni Riefenstahl.

Republicans See Whores Everywhere!

One tactic the Republicans are using to sow doubt about the healthcare reform plan that they refused to take a part in creating, is to insist that certain Democrats have reached a consensus because certain senators have been "bought." The accusation carries a sting of corruption, and fits together with the long running slander that Obama and any politician out of Chicago must be crooked by historical proximity to that city.

Thus certain conservative commentators unworthy of mention, but mentioned anyway (Beck, Limbaugh) have likened Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu to a prostitute. Why? Because Louisiana politicians were able to get an additional $300 million in Federal money with their acceptance of the health bill making its way toward committee and Obama's pen holding hand.

As these things go, the method is to simplify a complex issue down to a calculus like "honest and hardworking" or "evil and corrupt," leaving nuance or state specifics aside. Given that many states handle health care, Medicare, and Medicaid differently, it should not be a surprise that certain politicians will seek adjustments, financial considerations, or time or implementation waivers to accommodate the unique circumstances of their own constituents. While you want to keep that to a minimum, since the main purpose of a Federal solution is to harmonize and simplify diverse laws, it's ridiculous to assume that you can create legislation without some exceptions. (In the same way it's ridiculous to assume that Obama could have come up with a health plan that did not have to compromise on some major goals).

Louisiana runs a rather unorthodox medical system, as pointed out in the N.Y. Times, and with the adjustments in the new legislation Louisiana stands to lose some $500 million in income. The $300 million in additional Medicaid help that its politicians carved out of negotiations is intended to plug the transitional shortfall.

The spending formula that determines how much each state is given in matching federal Medicaid funds is based on per capita income over a certain period. Louisiana’s per capita income took an enormous leap in the years after the storm — 42 percent, according to state officials — in part because many poor people left the state, but primarily because of the billions of dollars in recovery funds flowing into Louisiana.

Nevertheless, because of this formula, the federal share of Louisiana’s Medicaid costs is expected to drop around 10 percentage points by 2011, which state officials say could add up to $500 million a year.

“It’s something that will make you stop breathing just to think about it,” Mr. Levine said.

In late November, on the eve of her key vote allowing the Senate health care proposal to proceed, Ms. Landrieu won a provision that would bring $300 million into the state to help with this Medicaid shortfall

The commentators who are trafficking in perception over reality can reduce Senator Landrieu, quite simply, to being Obama's whore.  They know that their listeners and those with righteous anger are not about to go study Louisiana's medical system or listen closely to the explanations given by the politicians (all politicians being liars, all the time, about everything, unless it's something the voter reflexively agrees with). Because they know. Sitting in the car on the way to work in Iowa, or California, while eating a McDonald's Egg McMuffin sandwich, they just know that Limbaugh has it all figured out, as do they, and that this is outrageous.

Ebeneezer Faces Hope To Derail Healthcare Reform, and Stuff...

It's hard to write like we should. It's even harder during the busy holiday season, when distractions like roasted turkey, gift buying, and the making of merry (or considerable mental energy devoted to avoiding same) constrict the thought process. Besides that, the news has been mundane, with everything, including healthcare reform, at a crawl.

If we do anything in the coming year, it will be to put a greater effort into certain things, including writing more often, and in timely fashion, with a nice balance between short comments and longer thoughts in each post, and with links to what we feel are the day's most important news. It is hard to do that consistently, and when you are talking about the news, there is often a feeling of futility because important changes are often slow in coming, with only the trivial, and the trivial interpretations of important issues, receiving the most airplay.

That said, this week has blanketed the country with snow and progress, and enough to make any reasonably optimistic person even more so. The Senate finally passed its version of a health care bill, and if you listen to the skeptics (whom, obviously, you should be discounting right about now), merging the Senate and House versions of reform will be near impossible.

That final obstacle? It's a congressional conference committee, where the Senate bill must be harmonized with the version of health legislation approved by the House in November.

The conference could be acrimonious. There are major substantive differences between the Senate and House bills. There's natural rivalry between the chambers, plus the pride of individual lawmakers who have worked hard on the issue.

(Christian Science Monitor)

The naysayers have been wrong with each slow step forward, and there is no reason to imagine the Democrats will shoot themselves in the political head at the end of the process and fail in producing something. Any bill, even a flawed one, can be marketed as a great leap forward, and this is probably one of the few instances where such a claim would probably be credible. Marginal change in how health care is dispensed can impact certain individuals in a positive fashion even while larger needed changes go unexamined. One thinks of "No denial for preexisting conditions".

John McCain (in the same article) might think the compromise and horse trading is a bit "unsavory," but not nearly as unsavory as the seat of the mental chairs that hold the larded derrieres of the asses doing nothing at all. One would hope that McCain, our lovely senator here in Arizona, might stand for something, but getting off that seat is a lot more difficult and he chooses to propose the sun and the moon (as in, why don't we simply begin with Medicare reform), or a do-over, when not vigorously proposing to do nothing at all.

(Senate Republicans doing nothing, and counting on public opinion to derail doing something. Which one has the Ebeneezer face?)

*

Counting on public opinion is a dubious way to govern. Generally, the public is pretty willfully ignorant about the things that affect them. If the facts do not harmonize with their own desires, they refuse to accept them. Which is why people make wrong decisions, and suffer for them.

I had a discussion with a friend who said they understood why "the public" was so angry over Obama. I said they were angry mostly because Republicans have taken the tactic of making people angry, and that the conditions touching people's lives were too complex or remote for them to even understand when those conditions were improving. You know, like the country nearing economic collapse and now the country not nearing economic collapse. It's no biggie for most people to ignore getting from there to here. It all should have been fixed in one day, and the fact that the evil banks were not allowed to collapse en masse somehow escapes their construction of a sound economic system.

My friend resorted to personal anecdote to say how they had gone for a loan at a department store and were denied.  They blamed their recently received "Obama loan," saying that had they known their credit score would take a hit, they would not have gotten the loan and done something else.  (News of the FICO hits were reported earlier in the year). It was pointed out to them that 1) if you didn't need the loan, and were not at risk of losing your home, then you should not have taken it and 2) if you were at risk of losing your home, then defaulting on your home loan would have been infinitely worse than any theoretical fall in your credit score. You would be homeless, and FICO'D. Future lenders need to know that you did not live up to the adjustable rate monster you signed, so having other people's cake (taxpayer or bank help) and eating it too is kinda like, "NO!"

Republicans are counting on that kind of analytical dissonance where people cannot get their minds around complexity or cost, or how certain actions taken on their behalf have actually saved them from themselves.

*

Other News:

• The American Medical Association supports the new Senate bill. If you listen to Republicans it's probably because they are evil, or have evil thoughts, or evil desires. Something about the love of money and wanting better reimbursements for doctors, with such love being the root of all evil.

• Ford is giving you money to go away. That's assuming you work for them on an hourly basis and are ready to start that cupcake shop that you just know will revitalize your life.

• Movie attendance and ticket sales are up, which can be taken as a sign of recession fatigue, or a sign of actual improvement in economic activity. We see both.

• Employers are hiring MORE temp workers. This has been going on for four months. It can be semi-permanent trend that will keep people underemployed with few benefits, or, it can be a sign of an upsurge in business outlook. Again, we see both. 

• New York Magazine has McCain being a hypocrite, knocking Medicare cuts while alzheimering his own more massive Medicare cut suggestions. Because, you know, a year later, and a year older, and at his age, you forget things that come out of your own head. Of course all politicians, including Obama, go back on their word, but I would rather they do that while working to improve something.
  
   "A McCain who denounced Obama’s stimulus program as “generational theft”—and then proposed an alternative composed of almost nothing but tax cuts. A McCain who scolded Obama to his face for being “leisurely” in his Afghanistan decision—then trashed Obama’s target date for withdrawal, despite having accepted a similar “time horizon” when it came to the Iraq surge. Who declined to repudiate conservative nonsense about health-care reform leading to “death panels”—then raised that specter again last month on the Senate floor. Who, despite years of defying the GOP’s know-nothingism on global warming, has refused to join his pals Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham in working on a bi-partisan climate bill—calling their efforts “horrendous.” Who has been praised by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for having been “a fabulous team player.”
  

All We Think We Know, Just A Portion of God's Science?

A week or so ago there was an article about a man who was in a coma for 23 years, misdiagnosed. He had been in a car accident, and in the following years he silently screamed out to doctors hoping they would recognize that he maintained a level of consciousness.

Rom Houben, 46, was left paralyzed after a 1983 accident, but told the U.K. 's Daily Mail that he ``dreamed himself away.''

Houben, with the aid of a computer he can communicate through, told the newspaper that he screamed, ``but there was nothing to hear.''

Doctors had said he was in a vegetative state based on testing through the Glasgow Coma Scale, the paper reported, but was repeatedly received incorrect grading through that system. New tests from the University of Liege in Belgium - which has a dedicated team of coma experts - determined he was fully paralyzed, but completely aware of his surroundings, the paper said.

His story became public after a study was published by the University of Liege outlining his ordeal.

(Canwest News Service, via Canada.com)

Between the time of his accident, and apparently now, the technology changed a great deal, allowing for more understanding of his state:

An expert using a specialized type of brain scan that was not available in the 1980s says he finally realized Houben was suffering from a form of "locked-in syndrome," in which people are unable to speak or move but can think and reason, and provided him with the equipment to communicate.

(Associated Press)

There remains some skepticism that this man is truly communicating on his own, and only time and additional observation will tell. What we find most interesting is how scientific knowledge can reveal itself over time, forcing reality to reveal new layers. Here we have a conscious mind discovered, and what we were sure of yesterday (the patient's mental status, the accuracy of our own assessments of his status) proved wrong under the light of new information and greater scientific discovery. How many people were also misdiagnosed and sit waiting to be heard--thinking, yet unable to speak?

Yet, we remain certain of so many things. We are certain that todays knowledge, obtained through science discoveries over time, pretty much tells us all that can be known.  But many of those things we hold as self evident truths are not quite that. Even the theoretical God that we cannot see, might yet be revealed when our science catches up with our dreams.