Limbaugh Speaks On Death (of Others)

There has been commentary across the internet pointing out some of the vicious things being said about Rush Limbaugh as he lay in a Hawaiian hospital, hopefully moving toward recovery.

And what words has Limbaugh sown?

“Mr. Revkin,” Limbaugh asked, “why don’t you just go kill yourself and help the planet by dying?”

(Columbia Journalism Review)

Sticks and stones may break our bones, but words will never hurt us.

What Do Limbaugh, Rick Warren and New York State All Have In Common?

People in trouble, no Lassie to tell us:

• Rush Limbaugh is in trouble: Heart in Hawaii flipflopping.
• Saddleback Church and Rick Warren are in trouble: Budget shortfalls of $900,000.
• New York is in trouble: General fund is taking a hit with first time negative $174 million balance.

Which one of these three stories is the most important? The difficulty on the personal level, on the business level (the church) or on the statewide level? Obvious of course where our attention should be focused.

Those voicing some of the strongest populist sentiment and hoping to stick it toWall Street are probably not connecting all the dots or realizing the full impact of  a collapsed or struggling financial sector. They never fully grasp how those high salaries flow down into the arms, hands, and pockets of so many businesses, and back to the public in the form of taxes to the state. Bankers keep New York's arteries pumping.

“New York State is officially living paycheck to paycheck,” said Thomas P. DiNapoli , the state comptroller, whose responsibilities include managing New York’s finances. “The state is starting the new year by scrambling to make payments and juggle money.”

While New York’s fiscal year does not end until March 31, its cash shortage could force it to borrow more money to pay for its daily operations, adding to the interest on loans that already costs $1 billion a year. And the financial problems will raise alarms among rating agencies that are already keeping a close eye on New York’s credit-worthiness, with the risk of a lower credit rating — and higher interest payments to future bondholders — already looming.

(N.Y. Times)

What is amusing is the state missing pension payments and shorting the school districts while prayerfully awaiting January and Wall Street's bonus payouts. They had better pray that those bonuses are indeed generous, though it will not be enough to prevent the doozy of a financial heart attack facing the state.

Oh, what was that? Oh yea, almost forgot,

• Europe is in trouble: One of the lesser EU nations (meaning YOU Greece) might default on their national debt causing havoc and rolling us all back into prehistoric times. (We exaggerate, if only to leave the actually reality comforting in its non hyperbolic badness). 

Iran Spasms

While cruising around the internet, we took a look at this video from Iran posted to commentator Andrew Sullivan's blog (at Atlantic Monthly) via Youtube. We've not offered a lot of thoughts on what is going on there, as the situation is fluid; the tendency is to want to see profound change and miss the nuances. Others can put it in far better perspective. But it is truly amazing to see a crowd of Mousavi (reform) supporters confronting security forces and appearing to win in the confrontation (or rather, not get themselves all killed). Opposition forces have been killed over the weekend, including leader Mousavi's son. The Iranian government suggests that he was killed in a drive by (as though this were L.A. circa 1990's)

• Sullivan's post
• WSJ on arrested dissidents
• Israel contemplates Iran attack in 2010 
• The Empire (Iran) strikes back
  

New Jersey and Midwest and Gold Lead With Some Good Eco News

Needing some good economic news as you sit there at home or in the office with nothing better to do? Let's begin in the great state of New Jersey, home of all things that we can't quite put our finger on. It's an odd place in some ways, a state with no cities. (Newark, that Paterson, that Trenton, that Hoboken, that Camden...uhm NO!... those are nothing like N.Y.C., Philly, L.A., Miami, Atlanta). And yet, it's still an important place, home of good universities, pharmaceutical and biotech companies, and people happier working in Manhattan. Yet, commercial rental stats from the state are important, and things are looking up. Marginally. Experts in that state saw vacancy rights falling slightly in December.

If you get enough of this positive news out there, consumer confidence surely gets bolstered. Often mass perception lags reality, and it takes a group of statistically positive trends before people begin to accept that things are actually getting better.

Not to be outdone, and in a different category, Reuters tells us that the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for Chicago rose to 60 in December from 56.1 in November, and above predictions.

It's these little bits of positive economic news that annoy us when we here blanket dismissal of Federal (meaning Obama Administration) efforts to stimulate the economy. The process of stabilization began under Bush with the creation of the TARP, and while there has been waste aplenty and a certain amount of "What should we do now" with the stimulus, it is still amazing to see things looking better only a year after near collapse.

Of course we will know things are really fine when the price of gold begins to collapse, or perhaps the more correct term, revert to norm. Unhappy gold investors with inverted smiles are the best indicator that America is fairing well.

Today gold has been down on a strong dollar, but these day to day things are meaningless, sort of. All we can say is that if the economic indicators continue to come in incrementally positive, it's a matter of time before the red line on this chart nosedives.

 (Kitco.co)

Full Body Scans for Republicans Missing Yemen Cruise Missile Action

If you are American, and black, you have to be a little worried about this most recent terrorist incident, and the effects on those of similar skin color. While the well educated youngster from a largely responsible family was Nigerian, his appearance broadens the mental picture that we create when we think "terrorist". Not good.

Which is why the implementation of full body scans is by far the least intrusive method to harmonize safety without over the top pure profiling. If you can't use technology, then you are compelled to work off visual cues or statistical appearance data and that bodes badly for one of America's most traditional populations.

In some ways it's the standardized testing argument that can be found in education. The black community has often sided with parts of the education community in their disdain for standardized testing. The alternatives, like portfolio creation, do not in fact make for an evaluation method that is any less susceptible to racial bias. The person doing the evaluation is still subject to their own personal bias, while the standardized test presents information, if theoretically biased (and we don't concede that there really is bias), that is widely available. You can prepare for it, and very little of it is information the average American would find foreign. You cannot prepare to overcome human bias.

Which leads us back to the situation at  the airports. The body scanning technology provides a way to "test" everyone, without resorting primarily to appearance. Granted you will probably have a certain amount of profiling that is always necessary, but the use of technology is a far less biased route.

Already the politicians are sparring and trying to get in front of the issue. The head of the House Homeland Security Committee is against profiling, without offering a valid alternative.  Absurdity abounds.

"You pat down every person who's suspicious. I don't think you have to target people," Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), told MSNBC. "This Swedish grandmother could just as well be a part of a terrorist plot as anyone else. So I think we have to be very careful when we try to target people." 

(The Hill)

I'm betting you can put about 10,000 Swedish grandmoms on planes around the world and the likelihood of disaster is betwen non-existent, as in zero, or some negative number value, where planes begin to materialize out of nowhere, as opposed to disappearing in explosions. Or a sudden explosion of meatballs materializing ala Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs. (Great flick by the way).

The solution, civil libertarians be darned, is to use technology broadly versus profiling narrowly or not at all.

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Other News:

• Republicans are saying the Administration is soft on terrorism.while Republican Senator Jim DeMint simultaneously holds up the naming of a new head for the Transportation Security Administration. Discounting Obama's escalation of resources to Afghanistan and actions in Pakistan, if you squint, and close your mind, maybe the Republicans are right. On the other hand, the fact that Obama fired cruise missiles, two of them, into Yemen a week or so before the Detroit plane bombing attempt tells you he is probably not quite so soft after all.

• Over at True/Slant, healthcare policy expert Rick Ungar asks how old are you, and how much you need Obama to hold your hand with this latest terrorist escapade.  

Consumer Confidence Rises, Jim Dement Blocks, Housing Flatlines

Sometimes bad news is good news. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in major metropolitan areas, was largely flat from September to October. The index had been rising for several months. While rising prices for a widely owned asset is generally good, much of our housing stock is probably at slightly more than fair value. To the extent that home prices stabilize at or below current prices levels, we are that much closer to wringing out the excess in expectations. People seem to expect some reversion to an inflated mean, when in fact we should expect prices to revert to a pre-boom norm. At this stage we want neither the stock market or the housing market to be floating above reality. People need to recognize their losses, and take them.  When the senior economist at Wells Fargo says "What may happen is that prices will plow along the bottom for a year or two," we say nonsense to that. That bottom should be considered the norm (meaning, some economically rational midpoint with prices drifting slight below it, and slightly above).

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In other happy economic news, consumer confidence is up for the second strait month, according to the Conference Board.  If we combine that with Mastercard's estimate of a 3.6% rise in holiday spending, (an excluding autos), we can find some measure of satisfaction in all of these numbers. This does not bode well for Republicans, who may be forced to re-frame the entire election picture in 2010 around terrorism (as they have done in the past).

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Other News:

• Ladies get your ya ya's out. Karl Rove, mastermind of Republican politics (and politics that included a distinctly family values message), is divorced and free to really get his rove on. Perhaps this personal situation will compel Rove to be more expansive in the types of issues advice he gives to those who hire him. While the Bible can be a great tool for helping create family values, quality policy that eases family burdens can also support family values. 

• South Carolina Senator Jim Dement blocks new TSA chief for no reason other than the nominee's undefined position on allowing TSA agents to unionize. Thankfully this does not come at a time when strangers from Africa are trying to blow up U.S. planes. Ha ha. Oh wait, yes it does. 

I Will Not Osculate Jim Cameron's Avatar

I saw James Cameron's Avatar recently. Most critics have found occasion to bless it as an amazing piece of filmmaking. A furious amount of buttox osculation has come from every corner. The stupendous box office receipts confirm that we have a phenomena on our hands. There have been critics amidst the praise, and I cast my lot with them. Discernment about the quality of this film, its ability to tell a creative story, is sorely missing. Minds are swamped with Christmas and holiday jovial delusion.

Avatar Oh Avatar, how I hate thee. Let me bullet point the ways:

• When is it okay to bang some guy's daughter, and especially some chief's daughter, without following some sort of protocol or process? Obviously Jake Sully's Pandora behavior guide was written by Captain Kirk.

• Is there no native Pandoran to lead them to safety? Why does it always take a Tom Cruise or a Kevin Costner or a John Smith to mobilize the natives?  Are there no other stories to tell? Maybe have a blue Na'vi head off to some far away tribe, discover anti-spaceship weapons, and return with some kick ass warriors from the far side of the plain? Yea, no. Sandra Bullock will save you (if you are a black youth with football skills). A soccer team will save South Africa (if you are Mandela, and need help pulling the country together). See a trend in how films are constructed? It's not necessarily bad, it's just reductive, repetitive movie-making.

• The battle scene was straight out of Return of the Jedi. The Na'vi, in Ewok mode, battle the evil Americans with makeshift natural stuff and some help from supernatural forces and the beasts of the field. How the hell is that remotely possible? I mean seriously, if any of that native mystical spiritual nonsense had any viability, Native Americans would have defended North America from European expansion and we would not be sitting here watching movies telling us that nonsense like that would work against hardened military power. Excuse me for my literalism while I excuse you for your flights of ridiculous fancy. A friend of mine said he just could not see the comparison, because in Jedi the Imperial forces had different vehicles than the Americans in Avatar as each marched through the forest. You know, because in Jedi they had four legs and in Avatar they had two and walked upright. Same forest, same mechanized humanoid, animaloid machines, same primitive people with sticks and stones, same death scene with crying Na'vi/Ewoks. Other than that, totally different. Shush friend of mine.

• Didn't I see this in Pocahontas circa 1995? White interloper, hot chief daughter, learning about the land and love. A jealous warrior. Searching for gold or other resources. A talking wise tree? Floating crap that signifies some spiritual blessing?

• Killing contractors for the American government is quite okay apparently. It was an odd experience, knowing  that thousands of similar contractors are busy in Iraq and Afghanistan providing a host of services, including protecting, feeding and assisting regular American military units.

• James Cameron did a nice little switch near the end, with the stark ravingly angry Colonel Miles Quaritch accusing Jake of being a traitor to his race. It was a nice switch, because the real argument and line of focus wold have been Jake being a traitor to his fellow Americans. But Cameron knew that might make people more reflective about what they are observing (the killing of American military personnel over the Christmas holiday while a good portion of those active and former personnel are overseas fighting), so narrow it all down to a racial issue, and better to make the good Colonel worthy of his eventual and entirely predictable death. Indeed you knew the minute you met him that he would not come out of the movie intact. He was actually my favorite part of the movie, taking care of business without benefit of his oxygen mask. In a real jam, who would you want on your side... the Na'vi jilted warrior, or Quaritch? Liar. You know it's Quaritch. 

• Scientists take one for the team with Sigourney Weaver dying. But it's a noble death, so scientists the world over can feel confident that their status is okay. They are not evil like the military guys. They are into discovery and research and blue sky pursuits of knowledge. Meanwhile the entire film is a frontal attack on technology and progress. 

• We could blast the film for its devotion to vague spirituality in the form of pantheism. But it's Hollywood, and we have been conditioned to accept natives swaying back and forth in a healing/goddess ceremony, but bust out in laughter, anger or resentment at any serious depictions of Christian religious activity like prayer, laying on hands, vigorous singing or shouting. 'Cause Christian stuff is just crazy and the cause of every evil in the world. (It's not, but, well, you know how people are). 

I left the film awed by the technological skill, but modern societies are like that. We do things pretty well. It's amazing the amount of technology and money that went into this ode to primitivism. How not ironic.

Private and Public Sectors Married, Give Out Cash to L.A. Teachers

Just another reminder that the government is no more inefficient than the private sector. As previously stated, private sector waste and error falls into the dustbin of collapsed companies, when not continuing year after year with faulty product and bad service. You can never make a valuable policy analysis based on the oft repeated mantra that the private sector is somehow less wasteful or more competent.

In California we have the nation's second largest school district-- L.A. Unified --overpaying employees, then demanding the money back, and with some refusing to return the money and forcing court action.

The conservative side of our brain will immediately leap to snark and easy criticism and link this payroll error into a larger diatribe about the general incompetence found in public education. "We need to free up the private sector to find modern solutions to today's educational needs," McCain would be saying ,if he were not too busy doing nothing. (Which of course he is pretty busy doing). Last heard he was busy criticizing the Obama for not speaking out on Iran, about a day after Obama spoke out on Iran.

But let's read on, and not put ideas in Senator McCain's head.

"It was a devastating blow, an eye-opener for the world to see how incompetent people were in the district," said A.J. Duffy, president of United Teachers Los Angeles, which represents district teachers.

"I think the district is vastly different now, but what's still there is a bureaucratic mentality," he said.
Duffy said he's working amicably with senior officials to "resolve these issues one way or another," but he said some lower-level staffers, for example, refuse to review an employee's documentation that conflicts with calculations made by L.A. Unified.

Repairs and other problems related to the $95-million system cost the district at least $37 million; the district received nearly half of that amount in a settlement with the vendor Deloitte Consulting, a subsidiary of Deloitte Touche.

(L.A. Times)

Here we have the public and private sectors united in incompetence and a fitting example that nothing is simply simple. And what's up with the greedy employees and teachers mysteriously on leave and getting overpaid? If we suddenly received an extra few thousand in our check, we would immediately notify someone, or, spend the cash with the full anticipation that we would be paying it back. Perhaps use it as an up front loan, knowing that paying it back can often be negotiated into monthly installments.

Umar, the Plane, Avatars, Princesses, Ewoks, and Annoyances.... and Jesus!

"I was making rather merry sir," said I to my reflection in the mirror, body several pounds heavier after a near week of holiday indulgence. Shall we count the ways? Turducken, macaroni and cheese with sausage, sausage stuffing, cajun stuffing, gumbo, garlic mashed potatoes, Brussels sprouts (have not acquired taste for them yet), rolls, Jamaican beef patties, strawberry flavored cake with chocolate frosting, strawberry Crush, fried chicken, and chocolate chip pancakes.

A bit too much gluttony and not enough Jesus, so let's flip the topic, and set mirrors aside.

For the most part there was nothing terribly important happening if you discount attempts to blow up planes headed to Detroit, and major protests and killing in Iran. Which, if not fully slothed we ought not to discount. In a land where we can stuff a debonded chicken inside of a deboned duck inside of a turkey, it's a bit of surprise that we cannot debone a potential terrorist before he stuffs himself onto a plane, only to be thwarted by alert passengers. Some will take this as a sign of lax security under the Obama administration, but it's more a trend.

Oh Umar, don't you know that Americans are not inclined to sit and let their fellow passengers pull out guns, matches, lighters, bazookas, or nail files anymore? What particularly hurts though, is the spread of this Al Queda nonsense to the black African population. If you don't see a potential racial profiling catastrophe in the making, hold your breath a short bit. While profiling is needed, it won't be welcome to American blacks who will bear the brunt of African stupidity. If you are black, get your flying out of your system fast before you become primary search targets (if you are not already). Thank you Umar, foolish 23 year old.

*

I recently saw the movie Avatar. It made a ton of money this weekend along with Sherlock Holmes and the chipmunk flick. I grew very tired through the first half, angry through the middle half, and slightly entertained during the final half, none of it the film making any more real sense than three halves making a whole. I learned a lot. Military contractors and ex-military are war mongers and violent (and despite the might work these same folks do on behalf of the military around the world, hired guns or not). Paganism is good. Technology is bad. Being a traitor is good. Capitalism is bad. Tribal medicine is good. Scientists are good (but worthy of death as punishment for their flawed scientific ways). In the Captain Kirk and Pocahontas tradition, screwing strange females in the new world is always good, and especially if they are the daughters of tribal chiefs. Saving innocent primitives is good, but can only be accomplished if you are white (or on rare occasion, a highly paid black person like Denzel Washington or Morgan Freeman)... primitives cannot, ever, save themselves.

Mostly I learned that director James Cameron has not an original thought in his head, and that a lot of critics and the public have been duped under the spell of the light and technology show. If I wanted to see Return of the Jedi and Pocahontas wrapped up in the same film--with a little Dances with Wolves-- I would do so. The final battle in Avatar was so close to the ridiculous Ewok triumph in Return of the Jedi that I found myself rooting for the Imperial Americans (go figure) and against the absurd idea that vague gods and the natural world will bail you out of your own isolated backward lifestyle. It was disturbing hearing the audience totally sublime to the idea of Americans dying when so many Americans, some 5,000, have died in our two ongoing wars.

It's is often amazing that Native Americans are praised for being close to the earth and the true occupiers of the Americas, when in fact, they too traveled here to these shores. If the world all flowed out of Africa, we can assume that those who were pretty strong and well equipped made it the farthest in an early human version of survival of the fittest with physical might making right. Getting to the North American continent first does not bestow perpetual rights, or greater spirituality. It just means you were first, and like every nationality on earth, you must build up a culture than withstand others, or watch it fade or get pushed aside. That is life, which is not fair. Or rather, it's equally fair at random to everyone, dispensing destruction to every ethnic group at some time or another.


Other News:


Iranians continue to protest their government, and the government continues to strike back through violence and denial of wrongdoing. This is exceedingly important, though we in the West typically don't have a good read on individual country's internal politics. Meaning, we have a habit of backing future enemies. A Marcel Marceu policy is probably needed.

Popular New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd allows her brother a moment to rant, and one can picture him proudly showing the column to his friends and colleagues. He may never realize that his sister has pulled down his pants in public by virtue of her generosity. One wonders why the Times would let a columnist subcontract out to family members, even if it was done merely to make a point about people's stupidity, gullibility and lack of self awareness.

Federal spending rose 4%, so Obama is somewhat of a liar. However, Federal spending rose less than the average in the previous 10 years. Thus, a liar who performs better than the previous group of liars. (And honestly, we think it's near impossible, regardless of party, to accurately predict growth or spending, so best estimates are excepted and somewhat ignored).

Crucifying Goldman With Old Nails On Eve of Jesus' Birthday

Here is yet another article that leads with Goldman, Sachs and ends with the implied accusation that somehow the big investment banks did something wrong by selling a product that allowed buyers to bet on the health of the housing industry while hedging their own exposure to those sales.

Gretchen Morgenson tells us nothing new, or nothing really criminal. Here you have big sophisticated buyers who bought collateralized debt obligations (C.D.O's) or bet on them, because they were optimistic on the direction of the mortgage market. The reporters writing these pieces, and who had no wisdom at the time, seem to be saying that Goldman and other firms should have immediately stopped selling the products despite the demand. Goldman at all times, and presumably across all products, should be in harmony with what their clients buy. Utter nonsense. Across industries companies hedge their exposure to products they sell, and that should be even more the case when trading financial assets.

When you are selling financial products that are constructed like a financial equation, and where your firm is a fixed entity in that equation in some cases, you then hedge your exposure so you don't lose. It's like someone having a yard sale. Yes you kinda like your junk, and you bought it all at one point, but eventually you realize you are not so high on that lamp or that sofa, and you get rid of it to someone who still thinks it has value.  Or maybe it's more like some insurance company selling you home insurance, and then taking the money you paid in premiums and making some wise investment with that money in case you or bad luck wrecks your home.

But not quite. Goldman was betting against its own products, so it would be like an insurer selling insurance, then making some sort of bet against your actual house with the premiums.

“The simultaneous selling of securities to customers and shorting them because they believed they were going to default is the most cynical use of credit information that I have ever seen,” said Sylvain R. Raynes, an expert in structured finance at R & R Consulting in New York. “When you buy protection against an event that you have a hand in causing, you are buying fire insurance on someone else’s house and then committing arson.”

(N.Y. Times)

Yea, yea. The commentary is all back seat driving about an industry that needed more up front supervision or regulation. The criticisms amount to Goldman having to be equally delusional, or, to turn down sales business and focus all their efforts on negative bets on mortgages. Neither option leads to more peace of mind because Goldman did not cause the problem the country faced. It was one small part of a flawed market that began with the people obtaining home mortgages they could not afford in any market climate.

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Other News:

• 
  

  Democrats are in a super good mood now that a healthcare reform bill has been signed. Republicans will probably spend part of the vacay meeting up and trying to come up with the most effective demonization path to sway the voters before 2010 elections. One of the big criticisms of Obama has been that he is forever talking and never producing. He is in over his head. But you can't talk about his ineffectiveness when he manages to change something nobody has been able to do despite numerous attempts.
  

  "The Senate’s action also brings Obama to the brink of signing into law the kind of reforms that have eluded presidents from Teddy Roosevelt to Bill Clinton."
  

  and
  

  “This is for my friend Ted Kennedy. Aye,” said Byrd, who turned 92 last month and has missed much of the year due to illness. Obama called Kennedy's widow, Vicki Reggie Kennedy, who also watched the vote from the gallery, after the Senate passed the bill.
  

  (The Hill)
  

  
  If Democrats get out there and sell the benefits and push, Republicans will have a hard time turning Obama's victory into electoral failure.
  
  

• Initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since September 2008, which is another economic sign that the Republicans better have a back up plan for running on economic issues without some solid ideas.

• Snowing in Midwest-Rudolf annoyed. Don't go there!  But Santa has to go there and you can track him (as can Al Queda, hmmm), even though, well, you know. Just remember that if you are a single mom and also my girlfriend, your child will know that no fat fake senior citizen with homosexual reindeer gave them that awesome gift.(Depending on how much they like it. If they hate it, that's all on Santa and good luck next year). 

• New York Magazine makes head of Goldman, Sachs look sexy.

Ebenezer Faces Rush Home To Make Merry

It's amazing what the threat of travel slowing snowstorms and the soon arrival of Santa can do to light the fire under Republicans. The Republicans have backed off a late night healthcare reform bill vote, agreeing to handle business early in the morning so everyone can get home in a timely fashion to make merry and eat their Christmas goose. The shenanigous delays were ridiculous to begin with, what with forcing 92 year-old man Senator Byrd to be rolled in for each carefully timed, and delayed, vote.

(The Ebenezer faces realize that you want to get home to your folks and have a little figgy pudding and maybe some pheasant with oyster stuffing. So you may go home after the 8 a.m. vote with time left over to walk through the market with Tiny Tim)

*

Maureen Dowd at the N.Y. Times asks "Who is the real John McCain?" and we know the answer. We suspect that now that his shot at the presidency is over, his lottery ticket not a winner, that he is now free to be his true self and follow impulses that he previously tried to obscure while courting the praise of the press. So long as he was the maverick, he could perhaps ride that status to the POTUS position. Having fumbled the ball during his panic of a campaign, he now knows he does not need to appear to be acceptable to everyone (just the crowd back in Arizona). We know  who the real McCain is. It's like a Scooby Doo episode turned on its ear, where we pull off the non-scary mask and suddenly see the true villain. The reflection of John McCain in the mirror is Dorian Gray.

*

Good news for the taxpayer. The TARP facility is pulling a profit thus far, and with the bulk of the money paid back. This outcome was not hard to predict unless one had a vested interest (politician, gold bugs, libertarians) in it all not working out. If only the Fed didn't exist, the Treasury didn't overstep, and everything just collapsed in peace, some long time gold investor is saying to himself, upset over how it's all not falling apart.

Total repayments by TARP banks should top $175 billion by the end of 2010, cutting taxpayer exposure to the sector by three-quarters, the Treasury estimated.

TARP programs aimed at stabilizing the banking system will earn a profit from dividends, interest, early repayments, and the sale of warrants, it added. Bank investments of $245 billion in Treasury's 2009 fiscal year were initially projected to cost $76 billion, but are now forecast to generate a profit.

(Marketwatch.com)

Avatar Wants You To Go Native, Challenge Authority, and Kill It

I am a movie junkie, but not as bad as the hard core junkies. I can't quote every famous line, nor can I name all the films by the most obscure of actors like one of my friends can.. But I love movies and the experience of sitting in the theatre away from the reality of the world. (Which perhaps, makes me less the movie junkie and more the escapist).

Hollywood has unleashed a fair batch of entertaining flicks this holiday period and the three I am looking forward to are Sherlock Holmes, Avatar and Up in the Air. Up in the Air in particular seems like it will be the most rewarding despite being on the tail end of the economic curve, what with its George Clooney main character traveling the country helping corporations lay people off. Given recent economic indicators, the layoff trend is probably at or near its apex, if it didn't hit that back in October.

Avatar has been grabbing all the press and attention, and largely for James Cameron's impressive use of technology in this film and across his directing career. I will see the movie even though I will surely be bludgeoned to death and annoyed by its message. It's a retelling of imperialism, or America run amok, with the innocent Na'vi people as the recipients of our avarice and aggression. With all our technology and military and capitalistic ways we are destroying those who are close to the earth and living a truer more natural existence, as Cameron would have it. The main character makes the choice to fight against his homeland (the U.S.), in order to preserve the purity of the other society.

In other words we are asked to root for a traitor to U.S. goals and side with nature.

Ross Douthat writes about the movie, and Hollywood's substitution of pantheism in place of more rigorous religious expression. Like Buddhism (as practiced by many Americans), pantheism is vague enough to be quite comfortable for those seeking a system of belief that does not require anything that might overwhelm personal inclinations. It also dovetails with the current environmental movement, allowing you to feel spiritual while buying your compact fluorescent bulbs at Walgreens. You need never step into a church, or forgive, or otherwise inconvenience yourself, because you are too busy being a steward of the earth in its entirety, one small footprint at a time. Human individuals get lost shuffle and are considered only in platitude under the phrase "future generations."

Douthat reminds us that nature can be as brutal as any God, and that deifying nature does not account for the nature of evil, since in nature all things are as they are (without moral judgment).

The question is whether Nature actually deserves a religious response. Traditional theism has to wrestle with the problem of evil: if God is good, why does he allow suffering and death? But Nature is suffering and death. Its harmonies require violence. Its “circle of life” is really a cycle of mortality. And the human societies that hew closest to the natural order aren’t the shining Edens of James Cameron’s fond imaginings. They’re places where existence tends to be nasty, brutish and short.

Religion exists, in part, precisely because humans aren’t at home amid these cruel rhythms. We stand half inside the natural world and half outside it. We’re beasts with self-consciousness, predators with ethics, mortal creatures who yearn for immortality.

(N.Y. Times)

Douthat quotes Alexis de Tocqueville and both of them have a good fix on this move away from individualism and toward a vast concept of "oneness."

Then there are those who would protest all of this say, "It's just a movie, relax." Perhaps. After all, James Cameron is no Leni Riefenstahl.

Republicans See Whores Everywhere!

One tactic the Republicans are using to sow doubt about the healthcare reform plan that they refused to take a part in creating, is to insist that certain Democrats have reached a consensus because certain senators have been "bought." The accusation carries a sting of corruption, and fits together with the long running slander that Obama and any politician out of Chicago must be crooked by historical proximity to that city.

Thus certain conservative commentators unworthy of mention, but mentioned anyway (Beck, Limbaugh) have likened Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu to a prostitute. Why? Because Louisiana politicians were able to get an additional $300 million in Federal money with their acceptance of the health bill making its way toward committee and Obama's pen holding hand.

As these things go, the method is to simplify a complex issue down to a calculus like "honest and hardworking" or "evil and corrupt," leaving nuance or state specifics aside. Given that many states handle health care, Medicare, and Medicaid differently, it should not be a surprise that certain politicians will seek adjustments, financial considerations, or time or implementation waivers to accommodate the unique circumstances of their own constituents. While you want to keep that to a minimum, since the main purpose of a Federal solution is to harmonize and simplify diverse laws, it's ridiculous to assume that you can create legislation without some exceptions. (In the same way it's ridiculous to assume that Obama could have come up with a health plan that did not have to compromise on some major goals).

Louisiana runs a rather unorthodox medical system, as pointed out in the N.Y. Times, and with the adjustments in the new legislation Louisiana stands to lose some $500 million in income. The $300 million in additional Medicaid help that its politicians carved out of negotiations is intended to plug the transitional shortfall.

The spending formula that determines how much each state is given in matching federal Medicaid funds is based on per capita income over a certain period. Louisiana’s per capita income took an enormous leap in the years after the storm — 42 percent, according to state officials — in part because many poor people left the state, but primarily because of the billions of dollars in recovery funds flowing into Louisiana.

Nevertheless, because of this formula, the federal share of Louisiana’s Medicaid costs is expected to drop around 10 percentage points by 2011, which state officials say could add up to $500 million a year.

“It’s something that will make you stop breathing just to think about it,” Mr. Levine said.

In late November, on the eve of her key vote allowing the Senate health care proposal to proceed, Ms. Landrieu won a provision that would bring $300 million into the state to help with this Medicaid shortfall

The commentators who are trafficking in perception over reality can reduce Senator Landrieu, quite simply, to being Obama's whore.  They know that their listeners and those with righteous anger are not about to go study Louisiana's medical system or listen closely to the explanations given by the politicians (all politicians being liars, all the time, about everything, unless it's something the voter reflexively agrees with). Because they know. Sitting in the car on the way to work in Iowa, or California, while eating a McDonald's Egg McMuffin sandwich, they just know that Limbaugh has it all figured out, as do they, and that this is outrageous.

Ebeneezer Faces Hope To Derail Healthcare Reform, and Stuff...

It's hard to write like we should. It's even harder during the busy holiday season, when distractions like roasted turkey, gift buying, and the making of merry (or considerable mental energy devoted to avoiding same) constrict the thought process. Besides that, the news has been mundane, with everything, including healthcare reform, at a crawl.

If we do anything in the coming year, it will be to put a greater effort into certain things, including writing more often, and in timely fashion, with a nice balance between short comments and longer thoughts in each post, and with links to what we feel are the day's most important news. It is hard to do that consistently, and when you are talking about the news, there is often a feeling of futility because important changes are often slow in coming, with only the trivial, and the trivial interpretations of important issues, receiving the most airplay.

That said, this week has blanketed the country with snow and progress, and enough to make any reasonably optimistic person even more so. The Senate finally passed its version of a health care bill, and if you listen to the skeptics (whom, obviously, you should be discounting right about now), merging the Senate and House versions of reform will be near impossible.

That final obstacle? It's a congressional conference committee, where the Senate bill must be harmonized with the version of health legislation approved by the House in November.

The conference could be acrimonious. There are major substantive differences between the Senate and House bills. There's natural rivalry between the chambers, plus the pride of individual lawmakers who have worked hard on the issue.

(Christian Science Monitor)

The naysayers have been wrong with each slow step forward, and there is no reason to imagine the Democrats will shoot themselves in the political head at the end of the process and fail in producing something. Any bill, even a flawed one, can be marketed as a great leap forward, and this is probably one of the few instances where such a claim would probably be credible. Marginal change in how health care is dispensed can impact certain individuals in a positive fashion even while larger needed changes go unexamined. One thinks of "No denial for preexisting conditions".

John McCain (in the same article) might think the compromise and horse trading is a bit "unsavory," but not nearly as unsavory as the seat of the mental chairs that hold the larded derrieres of the asses doing nothing at all. One would hope that McCain, our lovely senator here in Arizona, might stand for something, but getting off that seat is a lot more difficult and he chooses to propose the sun and the moon (as in, why don't we simply begin with Medicare reform), or a do-over, when not vigorously proposing to do nothing at all.

(Senate Republicans doing nothing, and counting on public opinion to derail doing something. Which one has the Ebeneezer face?)

*

Counting on public opinion is a dubious way to govern. Generally, the public is pretty willfully ignorant about the things that affect them. If the facts do not harmonize with their own desires, they refuse to accept them. Which is why people make wrong decisions, and suffer for them.

I had a discussion with a friend who said they understood why "the public" was so angry over Obama. I said they were angry mostly because Republicans have taken the tactic of making people angry, and that the conditions touching people's lives were too complex or remote for them to even understand when those conditions were improving. You know, like the country nearing economic collapse and now the country not nearing economic collapse. It's no biggie for most people to ignore getting from there to here. It all should have been fixed in one day, and the fact that the evil banks were not allowed to collapse en masse somehow escapes their construction of a sound economic system.

My friend resorted to personal anecdote to say how they had gone for a loan at a department store and were denied.  They blamed their recently received "Obama loan," saying that had they known their credit score would take a hit, they would not have gotten the loan and done something else.  (News of the FICO hits were reported earlier in the year). It was pointed out to them that 1) if you didn't need the loan, and were not at risk of losing your home, then you should not have taken it and 2) if you were at risk of losing your home, then defaulting on your home loan would have been infinitely worse than any theoretical fall in your credit score. You would be homeless, and FICO'D. Future lenders need to know that you did not live up to the adjustable rate monster you signed, so having other people's cake (taxpayer or bank help) and eating it too is kinda like, "NO!"

Republicans are counting on that kind of analytical dissonance where people cannot get their minds around complexity or cost, or how certain actions taken on their behalf have actually saved them from themselves.

*

Other News:

• The American Medical Association supports the new Senate bill. If you listen to Republicans it's probably because they are evil, or have evil thoughts, or evil desires. Something about the love of money and wanting better reimbursements for doctors, with such love being the root of all evil.

• Ford is giving you money to go away. That's assuming you work for them on an hourly basis and are ready to start that cupcake shop that you just know will revitalize your life.

• Movie attendance and ticket sales are up, which can be taken as a sign of recession fatigue, or a sign of actual improvement in economic activity. We see both.

• Employers are hiring MORE temp workers. This has been going on for four months. It can be semi-permanent trend that will keep people underemployed with few benefits, or, it can be a sign of an upsurge in business outlook. Again, we see both. 

• New York Magazine has McCain being a hypocrite, knocking Medicare cuts while alzheimering his own more massive Medicare cut suggestions. Because, you know, a year later, and a year older, and at his age, you forget things that come out of your own head. Of course all politicians, including Obama, go back on their word, but I would rather they do that while working to improve something.
  
   "A McCain who denounced Obama’s stimulus program as “generational theft”—and then proposed an alternative composed of almost nothing but tax cuts. A McCain who scolded Obama to his face for being “leisurely” in his Afghanistan decision—then trashed Obama’s target date for withdrawal, despite having accepted a similar “time horizon” when it came to the Iraq surge. Who declined to repudiate conservative nonsense about health-care reform leading to “death panels”—then raised that specter again last month on the Senate floor. Who, despite years of defying the GOP’s know-nothingism on global warming, has refused to join his pals Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham in working on a bi-partisan climate bill—calling their efforts “horrendous.” Who has been praised by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for having been “a fabulous team player.”
  

All We Think We Know, Just A Portion of God's Science?

A week or so ago there was an article about a man who was in a coma for 23 years, misdiagnosed. He had been in a car accident, and in the following years he silently screamed out to doctors hoping they would recognize that he maintained a level of consciousness.

Rom Houben, 46, was left paralyzed after a 1983 accident, but told the U.K. 's Daily Mail that he ``dreamed himself away.''

Houben, with the aid of a computer he can communicate through, told the newspaper that he screamed, ``but there was nothing to hear.''

Doctors had said he was in a vegetative state based on testing through the Glasgow Coma Scale, the paper reported, but was repeatedly received incorrect grading through that system. New tests from the University of Liege in Belgium - which has a dedicated team of coma experts - determined he was fully paralyzed, but completely aware of his surroundings, the paper said.

His story became public after a study was published by the University of Liege outlining his ordeal.

(Canwest News Service, via Canada.com)

Between the time of his accident, and apparently now, the technology changed a great deal, allowing for more understanding of his state:

An expert using a specialized type of brain scan that was not available in the 1980s says he finally realized Houben was suffering from a form of "locked-in syndrome," in which people are unable to speak or move but can think and reason, and provided him with the equipment to communicate.

(Associated Press)

There remains some skepticism that this man is truly communicating on his own, and only time and additional observation will tell. What we find most interesting is how scientific knowledge can reveal itself over time, forcing reality to reveal new layers. Here we have a conscious mind discovered, and what we were sure of yesterday (the patient's mental status, the accuracy of our own assessments of his status) proved wrong under the light of new information and greater scientific discovery. How many people were also misdiagnosed and sit waiting to be heard--thinking, yet unable to speak?

Yet, we remain certain of so many things. We are certain that todays knowledge, obtained through science discoveries over time, pretty much tells us all that can be known.  But many of those things we hold as self evident truths are not quite that. Even the theoretical God that we cannot see, might yet be revealed when our science catches up with our dreams.

Shaniya Davis, RIP 2009

There is no shortage of evil in the world carried out be people making evil choices. Often enough we dismiss things. The shooter was crazy. That person was suffering from psychological disorders. The killer had ideological reasons that can in theory be understood.

We cannot imagine deliberate evil in large ways despite the evidence of history. We fear to acknowledge the capability of man.

But again, there is no shortage of evil in the world carried out by people making deliberate evil choices, centered on self, lacking vision, warped by internal desire and blind to light. Evil is self placed above all, disregarding the life and freewill of others. Evil is lack of love. Evil is pride.

I am reminded of the character Wil Muny in Clint Eastwood's western Unforgiven, quite possibly the most meaningfully violent western every created. He states, "It's a hell of a thing, killin' a man. Take away all he's got, and all he's ever gonna have."

Me and My Father on the Speedway of Nazareth

My father has been dead for 17 years now, as of today. He died from eating bad foods, and minutes after eating. They fished egg out of his mouth, as his last meal was eggs, bacon, toast, and home fries, each fried, cooked or basted with butter, shortening or cheese. But it is not such a bad thing to have a last good meal before death. The walls of his freedom had been closing in after a previous quadruple bypass, and he was slated to return to his job at Merrill Lynch the following morning. He was wondering if he could make it at all in his new weakened state. Instead he died on a Sunday while watching the morning political shows with his son.

His eyes rolled back as he tried to say something, his voice clicking and locking as his body spasmed. You rush to the phone. Help came and he died later at the hospital. I've yet to live longer than him and on days like this I wonder if I will.

The odd thought now is that he has been dead almost as long as I've known him when alive. Not only do I wonder where has he been all these years, and doing what, but I wonder what I have been all these years (to others). I feel slightly ashamed, and that I might disappoint him, or a greater accountant. One should not, I think, be worried about disappointing parents when you are past a certain age and when they no longer exist, but still, I often get the feeling I am being watched, and would hope that I am at least bringing joy to his heart if he is permitted to watch me from where he sits.

Nascar is here this weekend in Phoenix, and the chase goes on.

Here are my thoughts from last year in May (his month of birth), reposted here:

Midway into Mark Knopfler's "Speedway at Nazareth," I often tear up, and now is no exception. I should be asleep but I am not, up thinking thoughts, worrying, wondering what my life has become.

When I hear this song I think of my father, now dead, and imagine myself with him, and running with a host of people toward God standing upon some distant hill. It's an odd little vision. I picture me and hundreds, thousands of other people in this grassy plain. And up on the ridge there, to the right of the tree of life, God is waiting, and crowds of people are standing with him. They are waving and clapping and you can hear shouts of "Come on, come on" and "You can do it."

But we are not there yet. We are on the plain, and behind is some enemy. Even THE enemy. Milton's Satan, rationalizing away with "Aw come on folks." At first we are milling about. I am standing talking to my dad (even though he is already dead). Others are sitting, fingering dandelions and bored. People are hot, sweaty. Someone says, "Hey, that guy on the ridge is calling us," and points.

Some people look up and are like, "What's he saying?" Someone shouts, "I think that is Jesus." Slowly heads turn in that direction. I hear some fat lady saying, "My aunt Janie is up there" and she starts running. Three hundred pounds of fatness and each step takes her an inch, but she runs nonetheless. I turn to my dad and say, "Check her out" and several people are kind of laughing. But I look at her face and she is happy and waving her arms and though every part of her body is shaking like jello, she does not care anymore. She just wants to make it to the hill. "Heyo! I'm coming she says" and her steps get bigger and bigger and it almost looks like one of those moon walks, or leaping in a dream, where she is bounding further ahead, weight and all, yet weightless.

Her husband, who was standing indifferent smoking a cigarette just a second ago saying this was all complete bullcrap, yells out, "Baby wait for me" and he takes off running after her like a little a baby chick. People begin to get up and move in the direction of the hill. Some drift, others move briskly, but it is hard to ignore the people on the distant ridge jumping up and down and making such a commotion.

"Someone called my name" my dad says

"Really? I didn't hear anything," I respond as he stands up.

"I need to get up there. I don't think I can make it though. My heart. This thing will kill me but I have to go."

"Let's go then, " I say, and we begin walking. The whole crowd is on the move now.

Meanwhile Satan is standing, pissed. He begins to turn things dark behind us. The crowd looks back. At first we see just darkness and clouds. But then fearful things appear. I look back and see myself. My true self and am afraid.

"We gotta run," I say to my dad, and we start up a trot. Pretty soon everyone else is picking up the pace. I have never seen so many different types of people. Thin people, a group of Malays over there, a mother and her toddler, a skinny gawky kid who suddenly takes off toward the hill.

"Fuck this shit, I am running too," says some Marine looking type and I watch as his legs pump up and down all powerful like. Pretty soon he has caught up to the leaping fat woman and her husband, and they all look at each other and start laughing. Running, laughing, leaping. Mid stride she turns around and yells to us way behind, "Come on now. You can do it."

My father is tired. Sweat poring down his face. That ridge was farther than it looked. We stop. "I can't do this," my father says to me. "I can't keep going. I feel like my heart is gonna pop right out of my shirt."

"We have to keep going. That's God up there! Look at all those people up there. All those people who went before. Everyone we ever wondered about, everything we never knew. Every magic, mystery and spirituality becomes science and explained to us. Come on."

"I can't. Go son. If I see you make it, then I will be happy," my father says to me, and it makes me cry.

I lift him up in my arms in the way you see parents carry their little kids and run around the yard. I used to get spanked that way for bad report cards. He would hold me in his left arm, and spank me with the belt in his right. Eventually I got too heavy or the whole enterprise got too ridiculous and he took to just giving me the "disappointed face" and lecture instead. And now here I am picking him up.

I grab him in my arm, amazed that I can and I start trotting along and he is really heavy. I mean heavy. But as I am running people are running next to me, and past me. Some old lady with an elaborate hairdo fit for a king to live in as a palace turns to me and says, "Ya'll can do betta than that. Come on now. Don't let this ole momma beat you up that hill" and it makes me laugh and I start running faster. I still see the fat lady leaping ahead and notice that a lot of people are actually leaping now too.

"I've always wanted to do that," I hear a plump man nearby say and he just starts up into the air, whooping it up. "OMG. OMG." After leaping in place a while, he starts leaping forward and others follow his example.

"I wish I could leap like that." I wanted to leap like that in the same way I wanted to go into the ocean, or dance on a dance floor, or run around like a silly happy dog, with no other purpose than sheer joy of the moment.

I try to take leaps but my father is so heavy. "Leave me, and leap," he says and I tell him to be quiet. I attempt giant strides and notice that with each stride, I begin to cover more distance. "Leap Finn," I hear someone say from the distant hill and I take a huge jump step forward and me and my father are soaring through the air. All this weight, these pounds that I carry in daily life are no longer holding me down. I am leaping and my father is laughing like "What the hell" and pretty soon everyone is all energy: leaping, hopping, floating, bopping.

There is a whole contingent of little kids to my left who are hopping like rabbits, which is something to see, but not nearly as funny as their parents, who hop along too. A Chinese guy passes me backwards, moving faster backwards than some facing forwards.

"Why are you running backwards?" I ask, and he says, "The faces. I have never seen so many happy faces and it makes me know where I am going and why."

I start picturing that scene in Moses, where the Hebrews are fleeing the Pharoah, and everyone is helping everyone get to where they need to be. Physics seems to be broken. "It's not broken. It's the full effect that we are seeing," says my dad.

As each person reaches the ridge we see them stand and turn to the rest of us and wave us forward. But we can only see the people on the ridge and not beyond.

Eventually we arrive there and I am hot and tired but filled with joy and we look over and see billions that had been out of view. Finally my father and I stand on the edge with God, and we are looking down at the plain, and darkness against the far sky, and only Satan is there, hand on hips, shaking his head.

He begins to weave quickly across the plain and in seconds he stands in God's face. "I remember when we were friends," he says, "and you turned on us and left us alone to our dark selves. Where is your seventy times seven? Is there nothing for one like me?" God stands and stares and I wonder if such is even possible. God wipes his sleeve on his wet cheek. It's certainly not theological. "Can't you heal him and make him one of us?" some child asks.

***

Of course that has nothing to do with the song's actual lyrics. The lyrics are about a race car driver who keeps having disasters at every race he attempts. And finally, near the end, at the Speedway of Nazareth, he finds redemption. Half the song continues beyond the lyrics, and the rythm and pace pick up. That is when I usually start picturing that scene above. The music grabs your imagination and you just start thinking thoughts. Maybe not as crazy as mine, but it moves you. You can check out a live version here (not the best), or you can actually get a hold of the studio version of the song . Close your eyes. Turn up your headphones and let your mind wander.

Half my life is over, and in the late night I think dark thoughts and wonder how to go on. I hope I find Nazareth.






MARK KNOPFLER
Speedway At Nazareth

Words & Music:
Mark Knopfler

After two thousand came two thousand and one
To be the new champions we were there for to run
From springtime in Arizona 'til the fall in Monterey
And the raceways were the battlefields and we fought 'em all the way

Was at Phoenix in the morning I had a wake-up call
She went around without a warning put me in the wall
I drove Long Beach, California with three cracked vertebrae
And we went on to Indianapolis, Indiana in May

Well the Brickyard's there to crucify anyone who will not learn
I climbed a mountain to qualify I went flat through the turns
But I was down in the might-have-beens and an old pal good as died
And I sat down in Gasoline Alley and I cried

Well we were in at the kill again on the Milwaukee Mile
And in June up in Michigan we were robbed at Belle Isle
Then it was on to Portland, Oregon for the G.I. Joe
And I'd blown off almost everyone when my motor let go

New England, Ontario we died in the dirt
Those walls from mid-Ohio to Toronto they hurt
So we came to Road America where we burned up the lake
But at the speedway at Nazareth I made no mistake

(P.S.- Never blog late at night with a lot of things on your mind.)

Sarah Palin, Rogue Five Year Old, Runs Rampant Across American Living Room

Like a five year old unleashed, Sarah Palin on Monday is bringing her rogue spirit to a small or medium sized town not near you to promote the new book she had no hand in writing. Her tour provides an opportunity for her to reintroduce herself to the American public; the assumption is that we didn't get the true Sarah last time around but now we will see her as she is. Unfiltered, and strong.

We imagine this would work swell if Sarah has been spending her time halfway out of the spotlight perfecting a variant of alchemy, finding a way to turn her lesser qualities (like vast ignorance) into something approaching wisdom and knowledge. Of course doing that involves time and focus, and when you are busy not writing your memoirs, and devoting all your attention to not writing your own memoirs (you know, bringing the ghost writer another cup of tea or slice of deer meat), and while keeping a close focus on your many children, there is little opportunity to sit down and actually do a little learning about the ways and means of the world.

The hard right has convinced themselves that the left is afraid to have Sarah unleashed upon the political scape, and that her obvious capabilities (put your 3D glasses on) have the detractors intimidated. The detractors are waiting for her to have some unscripted moments, where her own tongue will deja vu us back to remembering why she is not now vice president.

Her three-week, 14-state tour, to be kicked off Monday by an appearance on “Oprah,”is an opportunity to recapture the narrative of her own career, keep her political options open and make heaps of money in the process.

(L.A. Times)

Just how much of an opportunity America gives this political five year old to run rogue will be interesting to see. From excerpts and purported facts leaked from the book, her grasp of the truth still seems to be wanting, with every major and minor misdeed laid at the hands of others. It's never her fault, or her responsibility, and if you would just conform your mind to her version of reality, and listen, all will be well.

It reminds us of the child of a friend we know. We will occasionally ask her "How was your day?" and if her mother is not around, we are often fed the most elaborate concoction of stories that render that day's life in kindergarten as some sort of Lord of the Flies redux. When the mother asks the same question, it's all cookies and milk and happy face stickers from the teacher.

Somewhere, someone is lying, with the five year old mind content to offer the most meandering and farcical answers to the simplest of queries. Unfortunately for Sarah, the world is run by adults.

Jury of "Peers" Sets Innocent Bears Free

If we can remember back to August of 2007, back before Obama was on the job (though equally loved and dismissed), we can mark the beginning of the end of the financial period with the instability found in two mortgage funds managed by the now defunct Wall Street firm of Bear Stearns.

The funds' investments were beginning to lose value and executives at Bear struggled with the question of how much support they should give to prop up the funds and maintain reputation. Merrill Lynch, ever shortsighted, stepped in to demand collateral and things deteriorated even further.

The funds collapsed and were the first domino in a series to tilt the financial industry on its side. Two fund managers were arrested almost a year later, Mathew Tannin and Ralph Cioffi. Lawsuits quickly followed, including some by large banks that claimed to have been defrauded.

The government in these situations often looks for quick action and to make an example. The desire is to appease the average citizen who is usually outraged at processes they don't fully understand and have preconceived notions about. In the collapse of the home mortgage market and the related financial meltdown, the quick assumption by the man on the street is that none of this would have occurred if not for major corruption by someone else; that corrupt someone worthy of blame is usually highly paid, and entirely worthy of whatever blame can be tossed their way.

Which brings us to this week. It was a very happy week for Ralph Cioffi and Mathew Tannin when a jury of not quite their peers (economically speaking), did not find the government's case against the two men conclusive. Among other things, the government attempted to present email and other conversations in a contextual light that rather dispensed with... context. Some of the email messages that seemed to implicate the fund managers when taken in short quotes, proved to be saying something else when taken in full.

Complexity. The desire of people to reduce everything down to simplicity is the very ingredient that will keep practical reform and change from occurring. Rather than show trials and putting perceived criminals on parade, the real effort needs to be made in Congress, with financial reform that both allows for creativity but punishes reckless risk, consumer fraud, and extreme leverage by firms that could not otherwise avoid collapsing the system if mathematical risk models prove inaccurate.

The public looks for the trials instead of getting engaged over reform at the policy level, and too easily falls under the spell of those politicians pushing a free market mantra of laxity. Without meaningful regulation, we run the risk of killing capitalism as we know it. We applaud the jurors for not looking for easy and inaccurate justice.

Healthcare Reform, Reforming Judaism, and Independent Thinking

Do you know who you are deep down inside? Or do you conform to others' expectations, riding lock step with the herd, lacking independence? While in the process of passing historic health care legislation, it would appear that most of the members of Congress in the House opted to stay with the herd and not stick their necks out. The legislation passed largely along party lines, and mostly along the lines of liberal versus conservative. One Republican from Louisiana was brave enough to lend his support, and one has to give some credit to Representative Joseph Cao for showing independence. It would be nice if Democrats and Republicans alike had mixed it up, with the bill passing with equal support.

When given the chance to do something, Cao chose to be his own self, and put people above party. There will always be costs to most things that need to be done, whether one is trying to improve health care for Americans, or invade Iraq to improve life for Iraqis. Sometimes when Republicans make their choices, cost is only a concern when it comes to big issues they don't really want to back due to some ideological calculation that does not factually pan out.

Should the Senate do its part, and with a final version of legislation passed, years from now we will look hard to find all of those who were against this legislation. Nearly everyone who is against it has benefited from government action in the healthcare sphere, whether they admit it or not. Reminds us of one of our teacher friends who is viciously against this change, wearing the t-shirt that he loves urging Obama to keep the change. Meanwhile, he works for the taxpayers, who supply his monthly wage and healthcare coverage.

There are only 57 Democrats and two independents in the Senate. Two Republicans have signalled they could approve a compromise health bill.

If it is passed, lawmakers from both houses will try to reconcile the two versions before the programme can be signed into law by the president.

In Saturday's vote, the bill was supported by 219 Democrats and one Republican - Joseph Cao from New Orleans. Opposed were 176 Republicans and 39 Democrats.

(B.B.C.)

*

Meanwhile, back in the winter wonderland that is Iceland (in our imagination anyway, reality be darned), the krona has begun to stabilize. The government moved interest rates down a point to 11%, which is a sure sign of some strength in the currency, and a drop from the 18% rates in March. Since Iceland was basically the truck that overturned on the economic disaster highway, with other cars passing with less damage (South Korea, China), its recovery is due special significance. They may be without McDonald's, now that company opting to pull out the country (no doubt boosting Icelandic healthcare in one swoop), but they can take their Big Mac money and save it with some confidence. If America is the bull in the china shop and suffering through rampaging unemployment, Iceland is a canary in the coal mine, so we watch it.

*

We also watch home builders, the canary in the American economic mine. The news thus far has improved, sort of. One the one hand, losses continue. On the other hand, new orders are up from lows. On the one hand, buyers in certain markets like Arizona are buying foreclosed homes instead. On the other hand, the company is paring debt and increasing cash to $2 billion. If we count on our toes, we can throw in the Senate's move to extend and expand credits for new home buyers ($8k) and existing owners ($6500). So, overall, good news, yes?

*

When the cat is away trying to keep people employed, solve impossible Mid-East problems, and reform healthcare, the mouse gets the chance to eat the cheese. In this case, African cheese (which, if you didn't know, is made out of oil and minerals).

Besides the financial assistance, Mr. Wen also promised to form a partnership to address climate change in Africa, including the building of 100 clean-energy projects across the continent. Beijing will also remove tariffs on most exports to China from the least-developed African nations that do not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and sponsor an array of other programs in health, education, culture and agriculture.

The gestures are likely to further cement China’s good relations with many African nations, and may help address rising concern in some quarters that China is merely replacing Europe as a colonial power.

China’s focus on extracting oil and minerals from Africa has drawn some criticism from African scholars, and labor and safety conditions at some Chinese-run mines and smelters have set off outcries by African workers. Some critics say that the flood of low-cost Chinese goods into African cities has displaced products once made by local workers.

(N.Y. Times)

This is kind of mind blowing for this American mind. One always imagines that the United States should be doing this. Maybe not actually giving away $10 billion and fostering goodwill (and grabbing construction opportunities), but at least having the means to do it. Up is down. Left is right.

*

Who are we anymore?  Such questions abound, and especially in the Jewish community. British authorities have taken it upon themselves to temporarily and situationally resolve the issue. Orthodox Jews are not pleased with the interference, but it brings to mind many interesting questions that extend beyond the self-identity of the Jewish population.

The case began when a 12-year-old boy, an observant Jew whose father is Jewish and whose mother is a Jewish convert, applied to the school, JFS. Founded in 1732 as the Jews’ Free School, it is a centerpiece of North London’s Jewish community. It has around 1,900 students, but it gets far more applicants than it accepts.

(N.Y. Times)

The problem is that the school follows the standard Orthodox definition of Jewishness as laid out by the chief rabbi of the commonwealth. "You are not a Jew", went the rejection.

In appeals, the court eventually ruled that deciding "Jewishness" based on ethnicity is discriminatory. One wonders if this could be extended to the building of a modern state as well. Can Israel be, and remain, truly Jewish without actually discriminating against others? To the extent you grow lax in that self definition of what it means to be Jewish, do you not lose the essence of what you are trying to preserve?

Of course members of the Jewish community are hugely divided on the issue:

Lauren Lesin-Davis, chairman of the board of governors at King David, a Jewish school in Liverpool, told the BBC that the ruling violated more than 5,000 years of Jewish tradition.

“You cannot come in and start telling people how their whole lives should change, that the whole essence of their life and their religion is completely wrong,” she said.

But others are in complete sympathy with M.

“How dare they question our beliefs and our Jewishness?” David Lightman, an observant Jewish father whose daughter was also denied a place at the school because it did not recognize her mother’s conversion, told reporters recently. “I find it offensive and very upsetting.”

(N.Y. Times)

If you are Jewish, is it because you are biologically Jewish (via father and/or mom), or specifically biologically Jewish on your mother's side? Does the practice of Jewish tradition and law, being observant, make you Jewish? One rabbi, likely in some jest, states "that having a ham sandwich on the afternoon of Yom Kippur does not make you less Jewish", thus sticking to a specifically biological determination. If that is the case, what does that say for Israel and its future development? How are those identity questions resolved in a land filled with different types of Jews, topped with a mix of Arabs and others?

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Often it is hard to know what identity to establish and how to find our true selves. Is a Christian even a Christian who is one that self identifies or is the Christian the one who quietly follows the words and lead of Christ? Is a baker the one who wears the baker outfit with poofy hat but never touches an oven, or the man who produces delightful sweets and breads sans uniform? Are you identified by your fruit in the same way you are what you eat?

This weekend at least, Representative Cao of Louisiana knows he is his own person, one Republican on a lonely path in pursuit of change.

Bloomberg Wins, the Fed Chills, the Senate Pays Up, and

New York, New York, home of the ambitious. Billionaire Bloomberg gets another term as New York City's mayor, term limit laws having been properly adjusted to smooth his way. Meanwhile Andrew Cuomo, New York's attorney general, is making his own political moves in the form of suing Intel for violations of antitrust law.

In looking at the allegations, one could argue that Intel has every capitalistic right to reward and manipulate the customer base in favor of its own products. AMD, the smaller chip competitor, is perhaps peeved, but it's not truly Intels place to create a happy market for all. You could also make the case that AMD's building of a new chip manufacturing foundry in New York makes Cuomo's dubious effort even a bit more dubious.

Finally, you could wonder if this is the exact right time to engage in tearing down a particular company. We are, after all, smack dab in the middle of pretty sloppily attired economic times. Why now Mr. Cuomo?

Keith N. Hylton, a professor at the Boston University School of Law, said that Mr. Cuomo could benefit politically by taking such a prominent stand on behalf of local workers and consumers. “An attorney general is understood to be an aspiring governor,” he said. “They are politicians, and they want to be on the gravy train for big cases.”

During the news conference, Mr. Cuomo said that thwarting Intel’s abusive actions was important to consumers and businesses worldwide. “It is not just about New York,” he said.

(N.Y. Times)

We're thinking it's all about New York, for Mr. Cuomo.

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Mickey (as in Mouse) is going to go all hardcore on us, which is odd, because we were pretty sure he was the manliest, toughest, most hardcore fake living mouse ever. Can he get any harder, any badder? Badass Mickey? Let's just hope he does not go all the way street, and be the Vanilla Ice of mice, wording it to our mammas.

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Blow the trumpets. The Lords of Washington have spoken:

After nearly a month of gridlock, the Senate voted unanimously to extend unemployment benefits for some 1.3 million jobless Americans expected to lose benefits by the end of the year.

If, as expected, the House adopts the Senate version of the bill, it means workers in all states will be eligible for an additional 14 weeks of federal unemployment benefits. In states with unemployment rates higher than 8.5 percent, workers will be able to extend their federal unemployment benefits a further six weeks.

(Christian Science Monitor)

This is awesome news for those who are unemployed, and one marvels at the unanimity, but frankly, the same enthusiasm should be shown in working out healthcare legislation. It's that serious.

It probably would have also made sense for most stimulus to be funneled directly to each state to use to fill budget gaps, as opposed to dubious building projects, but  little late for that now. Just seems like there would be a lot less people out of work RIGHT NOW, if budgets were not so tight.

Somewhat related to that, it amazes how the Arizona legislature would rather throw people out of work in an effort to close a budget gap, rather than impose a small tax that nobody will even notice they have to pay. While low taxes are really good, zero taxes via total unemployment and lack of income is even worse; it's very bad for the voter and the economy.

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The Fed cut interest rates to near zero last December and has pumped more than $1 trillion into the economy to tame a severe financial crisis and the deepest recession since the 1930s.

Now that the economy is starting to recover, financial markets are increasingly wondering when the Fed and other central banks around the globe will begin to remove the extraordinary economic support they have provided.

(Reuters)

When the Fed stops trying to heal our inflated economy by inflating the economy, when they start to tighten up monetary policy, that's the exact moment when you should be sitting there with short positions in gold.  The smug or delusional (as all gold enthusiasts are one or the other, when not both) enthusiasm for that product far exceeds its true value, pumped and hyped like every other product on earth. We've gone, essentially, from an inflated housing market, to an inflated oil market (last year) to now an inflated gold market. Short of the type of doom posited in the 2012, there is no reason to be up to your buttox in gold.

In any case, the Fed has decided to keep rates at virtual zero until that exact moment when the economy is trending in the right direction, and so long as inflation does not come a loitering. This is probably the right thing, keeping borrowing cost low, and we are sure the reluctance of banks to make any dubious loans will keep things in check this time around.

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This will probably annoy some... the first lady making a cameo on Iron Chef in her continued promotion of healthy eating. If it annoys you (still seething over last year's political losses, or gloating over Republican wins in N.J. and Virginia yesterday), or you find room to be snarky, then it's a good time to examine your priorities and outlook.

The first lady came through the door of the South Portico in a pumpkin-orange dress with teal blue shoes and short sweater, announced the secret ingredient and talked to the chefs about getting children to eat vegetables.

“It’s important for these kids to have a hands-on experience,” she said. “And now we’re expanding the tours of the garden to any public school children that come to Washington, D.C., and we’re doing those on a regular basis, and it’s been just a wonderful educational addition.” She suggested that the chefs might want to consider cooking some of the exceptionally large sweet potatoes in the garden. “We are sweet potato lovers,” she said, “especially the president.”

(N.Y. Times)