I am in relaxation mode here in the universe of Blax Alternate. With a week of vacation to go, I am trying to savor the not working part, while remaining glad that I've got a job to return to. So many don't, and the ranks of the unemployed will surely swell like we have not recently seen.
I picked up a Wall Street Journal today, which carried an article about a Russian professor who predicts that the United States will collapse by 2010 due to financial and moral decay. This was old news, having been widely reported a month or so back, and on a prediction that he has been making for some time. He concludes that eventually Russia and China will form the backbone of the world's future financial regulation.
It tickled my ha ha as I waited for my laundry to exit the dryer. For if the United States is to enter civil war and split into his predicted parts, surely Russia itself is headed for pure fire and complete collapse. It is amazing how hell is always so far away, the blaze at our backs unfelt. It must have been a really slow news day, because U.S.A. Today ran with the same story.
While the man with the whimsical mind, this Igor Panarin, is looking this way, finger pointed, the ruble daily takes to lower levels and once great flagships like Russia's Gazprom struggle under the burden of massive debt. This while China and India and certain Middle Eastern nations remain flush with cash.
Igor does make a valid argument that the U.S. national debt is one huge ponzi, and surely if that is not addressed we will in fact be flat on our face. By that will not occur by 2010, nor will it happen before Russia itself experiences a huge collapse. You cannot build your house on any one thing (like oil) or any two things (like oil and gas), for you remain at the mercy of pricing in such a narrow band of endeavor.
Today I was more amused than concerned. We have some time here in the States; we tend to bounce back. We make sure not to repeat the same bubble twice when blowing bubbles.
What we will see, and certainly in 2009, is major havoc in Russia as people grow angry over collapsed currency, falling incomes, loss of jobs, and the complete inability of the Russian government to weather the storm. I say this as a fan of Putin, to the extent that I believe all nations want leaders who are strong and who bring dignity (which I believe Putin has done, faults included). But Putin did not take the steps necessary to create a truly diverse economy. Unlike the Chinese, who proceed in deliberate fashion, and seem to learn from every error (and history), Russians will suffer greatly from Putin's shortsighted miscalculations of his nation's strength.
Not to say we won't join Russia on the heap. It's just that we will not get there first, if at all. We are also a nation with a short attention span, which allows for instant reinvention.
No comments:
Post a Comment