2011 Predictions

We are at the beginning of the year, and when I look back over our predictions for 2010, I can admit they were pretty much off track. Certain things in the political world, like how much credit and voice people would give to the Tea Party, caught us by surprise. The predicted economic recovery never got moving in a manner that might impact unemployment.

Last year (how odd) in January we predicted that:

1. Unemployment would drop to 8% by year's end, and GDP growth would average around 2.5% for the year. 
2. Republicans would focus on terrorism while obscuring economic improvement leading up to elections, while failing to take control of Congress.
3. Healthcare reform legislation would pass, but the opposition would continue to attack the bill to win political point off the graduated implementation of the plan.
4. At least one state would be bailed out by the Feds. 
5. Markets around the world, particularly in South America and Asia would do quite well. 
6. Obama would tackle illegal immigration and leave the Republicans unsure of how to confront the issue.
7. I would accomplish something.  

How wrong we were and most of that "wrongness" was due to Republican opportunism in the face of the stunning election of 2008 that brought President Obama into power. Lost and without a clear focus on how to regain the political upper hand, the Republican apparatus latched on to, amplified, manipulated and exploited the Tea Party movement.

The Tea Party movement sprang out of nowhere, though not quite organically, and pushed the idea that government spending was suddenly out of control. It was formed around the issue of taxation, while rather ignoring the fact that the nation had just come out of a near collapse in 2008 and was in need of an economic restoration of confidence and functionality. Republicans saw these pockets of myopic outrage and determined it was a beast they could ride and tame. While they often pleasured their supporters during the election and immediately after that Obama was somehow making us less safe, and thus good for terrorism, reality proved otherwise. No major event evolved to make them prescient,or Obama as careless as previous presidents.

The arrival of  the Tea Party activists came not a moment too soon, and contrary to prediction, terrorism faded as an issue. It was all about the economy, employment and taxation. Knowingly, the Republicans proposed austerity and tax cuts while at the same time roasting Obama over the lackluster economy. Here, the party of private enterprise focused their attention and criticism on government's failure to create work, while ignoring the private sector's unwillingness to create jobs during a period of overwhelming profitability.

So even as the economy returned to positive growth per our prediction, the unemployment rate did not move downward by much at all, largely lingering in the same range between 9 and 10%. That did not prevent other regions of the world from performing well, with places like Singapore approaching 15% growth and Qatar topping 20%.

Domestically there was no major bailout of any state, though we remain certain that can still happen. We did see success in the passing of healthcare legislation, but that effort was savaged by Republican and Tea Party rhetoric, and the use of the economy as misdirection to malign Obama's efforts to improve the health care process in the United States. That battle, which included an end of the year deal to renew the Bush temporary tax cuts, overwhelmed the ability of anyone to focus on things like illegal immigration. Overall we give ourselves a score of 2.5 out of seven, being somewhat correct on points one, three, five and seven.

The seventh prediction, of "accomplishing something" was a freebie, and one we failed at. There was a new job, offset by the loss of a great job. There was a new car, offset by huge loan payments. Overall there was a feeling of progress not being made, and personal goals left undone or self-sabotaged.

Now it's 2011 and we think Democrats and Republicans are starting on relatively even footing, with a slight advantage to Obama who will have the virtue of being able to point out his own considerable legislative achievements going forward. So what can we expect in this year when the Republicans will be seeking to put their best presidential face in yours?

Our Predictions 

• Sarah Palin will decide to run (for president) and complicate Republican Party efforts to put forward a viable candidate. She will likely be defeated, but will also push to be named as the running mate.

• We think unemployment will finally move downward, below 9% by year's end.

• We expect immigration reform to play a big role this year, confounding Republicans on how to play the issue to maximum gain. Democrats will try to make it THE wedge issue to pry Hispanic votes from their subjective, sometimes unpredictable perch.  
• A massive Federal intervention will be requested by some governors. 
• The economic environment will dramatically improve moving into the 3rd quarter: 4% GDP
•  Jeb Bush or some unexpected but competent Republican will move forward in general appeal. 
• I will accomplish something.  

 (We may add a few more items in the next few days, if malaise does not render us lazy).