Speedway at Nazareth

Midway into Mark Knopfler's "Speedway at Nazareth," I often tear up, and now is no exception. I should be asleep but I am not, up thinking thoughts, worrying, wondering what my life has become.

When I hear this song I think of my father, now dead, and imagine myself with him, and running with a host of people toward God standing upon some distant hill. It's an odd little vision. I picture me and hundreds, thousands of other people in this grassy plain. And up on the ridge there, to the right of the tree of life, God is waiting, and crowds of people are standing with him. They are waving and clapping and you can hear shouts of "Come on, come on" and "You can do it."

But we are not there yet. We are on the plain, and behind is some enemy. Even THE enemy. Milton's Satan, rationalizing away with "Aw come on folks." At first we are milling about. I am standing talking to my dad (even though he is already dead). Others are sitting, fingering dandelions and bored. People are hot, sweaty. Someone says, "Hey, that guy on the ridge is calling us," and points.

Some people look up and are like, "What's he saying?" Someone shouts, "I think that is Jesus." Slowly heads turn in that direction. I hear some fat lady saying, "My aunt Janie is up there" and she starts running. Three hundred pounds of fatness and each step takes her an inch, but she runs nonetheless. I turn to my dad and say, "Check her out" and several people are kind of laughing. But I look at her face and she is happy and waving her arms and though every part of her body is shaking like jello, she does not care anymore. She just wants to make it to the hill. "Heyo! I'm coming she says" and her steps get bigger and bigger and it almost looks like one of those moon walks, or leaping in a dream, where she is bounding further ahead, weight and all, yet weightless.

Her husband, who was standing indifferent smoking a cigarette just a second ago saying this was all complete bullcrap, yells out, "Baby wait for me" and he takes off running after her like a little a baby chick. People begin to get up and move in the direction of the hill. Some drift, others move briskly, but it is hard to ignore the people on the distant ridge jumping up and down and making such a commotion.

"Someone called my name" my dad says
"Really? I didn't hear anything," I respond as he stands up.
"I need to get up there. I don't think I can make it though. My heart. This thing will kill me but I have to go."
"Let's go then, " I say, and we begin walking. The whole crowd is on the move now.

Meanwhile Satan is standing, pissed. He begins to turn things dark behind us. The crowd looks back. At first we see just darkness and clouds. But then fearful things appear. I look back and see myself. My true self and am afraid.

"We gotta run," I say to my dad, and we start up a trot. Pretty soon everyone else is picking up the pace. I have never seen so many different types of people. Thin people, a group of Malays over there, a mother and her toddler, a skinny gawky kid who suddenly takes off toward the hill.

"Fuck this shit, I am running too," says some Marine looking type and I watch as his legs pump up and down all powerful like. Pretty soon he has caught up to the leaping fat woman and her husband, and they all look at each other and start laughing. Running, laughing, leaping. Mid stride she turns around and yells to us way behind, "Come on now. You can do it."

My father is tired. Sweat poring down his face. That ridge was farther than it looked. We stop. "I can't do this," my father says to me. "I can't keep going. I feel like my heart is gonna pop right out of my shirt."

"We have to keep going. That's God up there! Look at all those people up there. All those people who went before. Everyone we ever wondered about, everything we never knew. Every magic, mystery and spirituality becomes science and explained to us. Come on."
"I can't. Go son. If I see you make it, then I will be happy," my father says to me, and it makes me cry.

I lift him up in my arms in the way you see parents carry their little kids and run around the yard. I used to get spanked that way for bad report cards. He would hold me in his left arm, and spank me with the belt in his right. Eventually I got too heavy or the whole enterprise got too ridiculous and he took to just giving me the "disappointed face" and lecture instead. And now here I am picking him up.

I grab him in my arm, amazed that I can and I start trotting along and he is really heavy. I mean heavy. But as I am running people are running next to me, and past me. Some old lady with an elaborate hairdo fit for a king to live in as a palace turns to me and says, "Ya'll can do betta than that. Come on now. Don't let this ole momma beat you up that hill" and it makes me laugh and I start running faster. I still see the fat lady leaping ahead and notice that a lot of people are actually leaping now too.

"I've always wanted to do that," I hear a plump man nearby say and he just starts up into the air, whooping it up. "OMG. OMG." After leaping in place a while, he starts leaping forward and others follow his example.

"I wish I could leap like that." I wanted to leap like that in the same way I wanted to go into the ocean, or dance on a dance floor, or run around like a silly happy dog, with no other purpose than sheer joy of the moment.

I try to take leaps but my father is so heavy. "Leave me, and leap," he says and I tell him to be quiet. I attempt giant strides and notice that with each stride, I begin to cover more distance. "Leap Finn," I hear someone say from the distant hill and I take a huge jump step forward and me and my father are soaring through the air. All this weight, these pounds that I carry in daily life are no longer holding me down. I am leaping and my father is laughing like "What the hell" and pretty soon everyone is all energy: leaping, hopping, floating, bopping.

There is a whole contingent of little kids to my left who are hopping like rabbits, which is something to see, but not nearly as funny as their parents, who hop along too. A Chinese guy passes me backwards, moving faster backwards than some facing forwards.

"Why are you running backwards?" I ask, and he says, "The faces. I have never seen so many happy faces and it makes me know where I am going and why."

I start picturing that scene in Moses, where the Hebrews are fleeing the Pharoah, and everyone is helping everyone get to where they need to be. Physics seems to be broken. "It's not broken. It's the full effect that we are seeing," says my dad.

As each person reaches the ridge we see them stand and turn to the rest of us and wave us forward. But we can only see the people on the ridge and not beyond.

Eventually we arrive there and I am hot and tired but filled with joy and we look over and see billions that had been out of view. Finally my father and I stand on the edge with God, and we are looking down at the plain, and darkness against the far sky, and only Satan is there, hand on hips, shaking his head.

He begins to weave quickly across the plain and in seconds he stands in God's face. "I remember when we were friends," he says, "and you turned on us and left us alone to our dark selves. Where is your seventy times seven? Is there nothing for one like me?" God stands and stares and I wonder if such is even possible. God wipes his sleeve on his wet cheek. It's certainly not theological. "Can't you heal him and make him one of us?" some child asks.

***

Of course that has nothing to do with the song's actual lyrics. The lyrics are about a race car driver who keeps having disasters at every race he attempts. And finally, near the end, at the Speedway of Nazareth, he finds redemption. Half the song continues beyond the lyrics, and the rythm and pace pick up. That is when I usually start picturing that scene above. The music grabs your imagination and you just start thinking thoughts. Maybe not as crazy as mine, but it moves you. You can check out a live version here (not the best), or you can actually get a hold of the studio version of the song . Close your eyes. Turn up your headphones and let your mind wander.

Half my life is over, and in the late night I think dark thoughts and wonder how to go on. I hope I find Nazareth.



MARK KNOPFLER
Speedway At Nazareth

Words & Music:
Mark Knopfler

After two thousand came two thousand and one
To be the new champions we were there for to run
From springtime in Arizona 'til the fall in Monterey
And the raceways were the battlefields and we fought 'em all the way

Was at Phoenix in the morning I had a wake-up call
She went around without a warning put me in the wall
I drove Long Beach, California with three cracked vertebrae
And we went on to Indianapolis, Indiana in May

Well the Brickyard's there to crucify anyone who will not learn
I climbed a mountain to qualify I went flat through the turns
But I was down in the might-have-beens and an old pal good as died
And I sat down in Gasoline Alley and I cried

Well we were in at the kill again on the Milwaukee Mile
And in June up in Michigan we were robbed at Belle Isle
Then it was on to Portland, Oregon for the G.I. Joe
And I'd blown off almost everyone when my motor let go

New England, Ontario we died in the dirt
Those walls from mid-Ohio to Toronto they hurt
So we came to Road America where we burned up the lake
But at the speedway at Nazareth I made no mistake

(P.S.- Never blog late at night with a lot of things on your mind.)

What's Bernanke Doing In There (In the Fed)?

A gold bug has many questions, with the greatest being whether to continue the buildup in gold coins at current prices. The spot under the bed is getting stuffed to the gills, and the wife refuses to let the ground under the tomato garden be used as a makeshift repository, but that won't stop purchases.

Then too, of late, the newsletters have been urging the wise to keep their stash of gold in a country away from your own Federal authorities (ironically resulting in some Swedish Gold Bug saying, "I will store my gold in America, some Cayman Gold Bug saying, "I will store my gold in Sweden, and some American Gold Bug saying, "I will store my gold in Cayman").

Along with this question of whether to buy more while the getting is cheap (Gold Bug Economic World Cheap, that is), and where to store it, is the question of what further action Bernanke will take in light of the market drifting back toward 12000.

What is the Fed up to this weekend?

It all reminds me of that Tom Waits song, "What's He Building In There", with Wait's crackpot voiced speculations about what's going on in a neighbor's house growing ever more creepy sounding.

The End of the World Came in 1992

We stumbled upon this wonderful interview by way of Maoxian, who links to it. Normally we are not huge on linking at all, but sometimes things are said better elsewhere. We don't really know the personalities or magazine behind this interview with a hedge fund manager, but the questions asked and answered explain current financial difficulties better than we could ever do on our own.

We try our best here to comment on the financial and political happenings in a manner that is understandable and enjoyable to the regular reader, without being experts. Where we are sufficiently lacking understanding, we try to link to those who can add clarity.

When a person understands why things happen, they are less likely to leap to the more preposterous life choices that lead to stockpiling gold coins, cans of ravioli and Pabst in the basement, or ignoring the 401K because the rapture is coming at any moment.

And there are truly people like that.

I've a friend (really, it's not me, he's Canadian, as will be all future "friend" anecdotal points) whose father worked for financial institutions most of his adult life: from Equitable to Morgan Guaranty to Moodys to Merrill Lynch (from the 1970's through 1992). He was not a stupid man. He worked as a buy side analyst making a comfortable living, supporting wife and kids. He came home each day, finished off his Wall Street Journal and New York Times over a dinner of some fried food, often chicken (that chicken would later rise from the plate and kill him) and watched the national news, then flipped over to more coverage on PBS. He would go to bed around 2 a.m. after prayer for an hour or so.

He was a religious man. He was atuned to politics, but did not vote under the theory that everything was in God's hands. His favorite portions of the Bible were the sections dealing in prophecy and the future. Needless to say he was pretty sure that before his lifetime was over the "end times" would be upon us, and paying too much attention to structuring your 401K or investments was a waste. It would be of no value when the system fell apart and Christians were running for their lives under the new regime created by the Anti-Christ and his sidekick (some sort of talking beast-man).

(His vision of the future included invasions of U.S. soil by Germans and Chinese by way of Mexico, a United Europe run by the Anti-Christ and gearing up for war against Israel, numerous plagues upon man, huge locusts with genetically engineered man heads, the persecution of Christians, and increased sinful behavior, with women running around nearly naked. In fact when women started appearing in the 1980's with leggings and long sweatshirts, he grew alarmed, as he had dreamed that very thing many years earlier. I gather Jennifer Beals only confirmed soon coming doom).

Back in the late seventies he encouraged everyone to buy gold, but bought none himself, and while his wife often noted this as a major command decision flaw, his odd inability to act on his instincts perhaps kept him from buying into a bubble. He was no gold bug by any means, just somewhat skeptical of the system, and how much to commit to earthly things. He was rational enough not to buy gold, but religious enough to give his friends the heads up so that at least they would be covered when all hell broke loose. Laying off risk perhaps on others?

Of course the end of the world came in 1992... for him. It was that chicken on the plate. After years of battery and frying, the chicken had enough and struck back at his heart and he died. Because he was not proactive with his investments, and did not want to appear before God to be too focused on earthly goods, a lot (of potential money) was left on the table.

Given that story about my friend's father, we hope to move people away from that. From what? From drawing life-affecting wrong conclusions based on beliefs that cannot be supported by reality. While this may seem an unnecessary task, in actuality, the more you drill down into the average American's mind, the more you find pockets of fantastical thinking that lead to cynicism and lack of movement.

We see that in our own lives and daily struggle with it. My friend's father's beliefs were not necessarily wrong, but rather, his emphasis was wrong. He did not give unto Caesar what was Caesar's, or do the tasks (like voting) that a good citizen should do. There is a way to vote while at the same time knowing that God controls the ultimate outcome. There is a way to plan for the future even while believing a future may not come. '

Greater still, he ignored from his own book the point that his emphasis should be on love, and that God would take care of the future, and that if you are doing all you can today for God and man, then you will be prepared for whatever the future might bring. You do what you know to do given the brain and skills God gave you, but you don't let the earth or the tasks own you. We do (right), God validates. (Or for the atheist, we do right, and right itself will yield seen or unseen fruit).

In most cases the future is unknowable and the time you think you have can be much shorter (or longer). While looking for death (or Satan, or happiness, or love) to approach from the left and at some precise time, the same can approach you from the right at the moment you least expect it. Be ready for any outcome, and stay armed with wisdom and true knowledge.

Ballmer Up Against Yahoo's Sugar Walls

Steve Ballmer is not about to be pushed around, delayed, waylayed, or forced to overpay for a Yahoo who, with each passing day of income slowing recession, stands firm in their rejection of Ballmer's punishing kiss.

Taking the osculation attempts up a notch, Microsoft announced on Saturday that Yahoo had a short three weeks to give in or steps would be taken to get to her via spreading rumors among her hot friends:

"If we have not concluded an agreement within the next three weeks, we will be compelled to take our case directly to your shareholders, including the initiation of a proxy contest to elect an alternative slate of directors for the Yahoo board,”

He went on to suggest--indirectly--that the monetary value of the hookup might be more McDonald's than Applebees if Yahoo kept being such a b-word about it all:

“If we are forced to take an offer directly to your shareholders, that action will have an undesirable impact on the value of your company from our perspective, which will be reflected in the terms of our proposal.”

He sent this via email, from the comfort of his home computer and crossed his fingers. Steve hates the relationship drama when everyone already knows Yahoo can't do better than him.

Weekend in China

The monetary chief in Hong Kong, Joseph Yam, argued against any changes in the HK currency's peg to the U.S. dollar as a means of calming inflation.

"With the U.S. economic slowdown and its credit crisis unresolved, Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland's economy will be affected and the public should be psychologically prepared, he added."

(Xinhua/China View)

*

Despite rice shortages in many countries, the supply in China is not at risk, according to various government officials. This is due to the reliance on domestic supply instead of imports for the bulk of their needs. The government has curbed exports and increased subsidies to maintain price stability.
(China Daily)

*

Roland Soong over at EastSouthWestNorth gives us the "Red Army" on the march. Americans be afraid. Very afraid. Capitalism run amok?

*

New Zealand and China, friends with new free trade benefits:

"The China-New Zealand free trade agreement, to be singed in Beijing on Monday, will boost bilateral complementary and mutually beneficial trade ties, and enrich the content of "China-New Zealand comprehensive cooperative relations for mutual benefits and win-win situation in the 21st century."

(Xinhua/China View)

*

The United Arab Emirates seeking new business opportunities with the East, roadtrips to China:

"The Chinese government invited Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum on an official visit to the country. The ruler responded by arriving with an entourage of 50 business leaders and throngs of government support -- an obvious symbol of the importance the U.A.E. has put on growing relations with China. "

The president of China, Hu Jintao, and the premier, Wen Jiabao, welcomed members of the visiting group.

Said Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Chairman of Dubai World, one of the Dubai government's investment arms:

"We are concentrating in China, concentrating in Africa, because these are places where they're hungry for capital and there is growth potential," he said, "The officials in the East are encouraging while the officials in the West are creating noises unnecessarily. So, naturally, people will look at more investment in the East..."

(CNN)

And in a related story from the Kippreport, the United Kingdom roadtrips to the United Arab Emirates right after the U.A.E. trip to China. The geographic direction of these road trips is most notable.

As Prince Andrew comes to town, Sheikh Mohammed, Ruler of Dubai, comes to the end of this four-day trade trip to China. The two trips highlight the importance of jet-setting, high-level delegations to beefing up trade relations...

Inside, Inside the House of Money

From Inside the House of Money:

What is your long-range view of the world?

"At some point, we will have had The Big One. It's out there. I don't know whether it's a financial asset depression or a real depression. The thing that I'm sure about is that financial assets can't keep doing what they're doing, or that so many people can be rewarded for being imprudent.

I have a friend who, unbelievably, actually puts away money every month to buy a house. She's getting squeezed because the $500 she puts away every month to save for her vacation house is getting 1 percent. All of our other friends who have gone out and bought houses all leveraged up when they really couldn't afford them are being rewarded. So the house that she's saving up for now costs 20 percent more, the person who borrowed the max has made multiples of 20 percent, depending on their elverage, but yet she's made 1 percent.

Over the long term, that's not sustainable.

Longer term, we'll have a problem with crude. I wouldn't be surprised if in three to five years it hits $100 a barrel. The pull from Asia is just gigantic. There are eight million nongovernmental cars in China versus 120 million in the United States and China has five times the population. I'm not one of these "China is the be-all and end-all" types--and again, it's like the Internet, I'm not sure if there's going to be any return--but it's definately going to change the world."

Scott Bessent, Bessent Capital

From the book of interviews by Steven Drobny, published in 2006, and no doubt researched prior to that date.

Oba Ma X-ray Vision and Organizational Force

Signs that Master Oba Ma has x-ray vision and is looking through Darth Hillary to plan for the larger, later battle with Emperor McCain:

...The experience changed the course of my life -- and I want to share that kind of opportunity with you.

That's why we're introducing a program that's going to train a new generation of leaders -- not only to help us win this election, but to help strengthen our democracy in communities across the country.

If you apply and are selected, you'll be trained in the basic organizing principles that this campaign and our movement for change are built on. You will be assigned to a community where you'll organize supporters. Assignments will begin in June, and you'll be required to work a minimum of six weeks over the summer.

This program is designed to give you real world organizing experience that will have a concrete impact on this election.

Apply to be an Obama Organizing Fellow and put progressive values to work in the real world:

http://my.barackobama.com/fellows

(From Obama campaign mailing)

Of course we can expect Hillary to quickly scramble together her own "go team", though her comfy ladies of a certain age might have trouble taking it to the streets with the same energy.

(Hillary Note to Self: Have Maggie schedule fundraiser with Michael McDonald to help us take it to the streets)

Congress Feeds, Taxpayers Eat Each Other

Just as you were about to pick up the chainsaw to carve a support beam in half, you get the news that the government is stepping in (again) and you breath a sigh of relief. The kids can stop peeing on the wall now. The wife can mop up the acid spread across the attic floor. Finally the government you have been begging for has stepped up to be of maximum assistance.

Yes the Fed tried mightily, with some progress, to keep the whole system from going under, but what is the collapse of American life as we know it, when compared to the loss of your house. Better you have a house and no economic system, than an economic system with no house, or so goes the theory for those caught up in housing treachery. The Fed was too concerned with the big picture, it's Fed friends (ECB and BOE) too concerned with local inflation, to be of much help to the likes of real people.

The political leadership in Washington has taken note and come to the rescue in the form of a bipartisian aid package. Like most new projects in the works, this will probably go a long way toward doing absolutely nothing for the issue at hand, or nothing in the next few moments between the homeowner having to trash the home, and the sheriff coming to dump the household, little Muffie too, out onto the front lawn.

In short, and still under discussion:

• More money for foreclosure counselors, like $100 million to expand counseling for homeowners at risk of defaulting on their loans



• Tax-exempt bonds to let local housing agencies refinance subprime mortgages.



• $4 billion in grants for local governments to buy foreclosed properties.



• More transparency in real-estate closings to help borrowers better understand the terms.

(N.Y. Times)

I am not sure this is what the average investor thinks they want (or whether it will be the right or the left hand of the taxpayer that is handing cash to the other hand). Ideally what the average person would request is a plan similar to the following, and up for discussion nowhere:

1) Have the government call the bank/mortgage company to hold off on any action for about three months while I get my junk together.

2) Force my bank/mortgage company to refinance me at a lower rate on my fixed rate loan, or a lower rate than my teaser rate, since things have gotten way out of control, what with the payments to Visa for the big screen tv. ("N.C. Final Two babee!!)

3) Roll my two months of $50 payments (with $3000 past due) into the refinance or write it off (because of Bush, Exxon profits, Iraq, Bear who?, Yes You Can, gas prices).

4) Adjust the mortgage down so that it reflects the 40% drop in accessed value, less another 60% for any contingency loss of value. Force the bank to comply, or have the government guarantee the difference, don't really want to get into the specifics or read the documents.

Given the gap between what is coming eventually, and what people want yesterday, one imagines there will be a certain sort of disappointment.

Between all the measures-the finance facilities, debt swaps, lowered rates, Fed window openings, free checks in the mail, contract rewriting, counseling-one imagines that eventually we will see complete doom (as the gold bugs are talking lately) turn into general recession or annoyingingly higher unemployment.

But these past few months should be a joy. We are seeing all the levers of government at work to save us, and were we in certain less developed parts of the world, this would have ended quite differently, resulting in us literally eating each other or installing a true dictator.

Paulson Has Your Back (but prolly not)

The New York Times reports some new initiatives being proposed by the Treasury Department that have no chance of becoming law before the election, so it almost behooves us to ignore the key points and make something up. It's all unquestionably mooty.

The proposal includes three new regulatory entities:

• A mock organization, or rather, a Mortgage Origination Commission (MOC), to look over the shoulder of the states in their regulation of mortgage brokers, and oversee licensing. A secondary task will be to collaborate with a fine teaching institution like Devry to start a series of mortgage education classes for new home buyers. The required courses will include, "Debt is Not A Figment of Your Lender's Imagination," "Your Income is a Real Number" and "Gravitational Pull and Mean Reversion in Home Pricing (an upper level course)"




• A national insurance regulator to harmonize the current state structure. Smokey the Bear is set to shift from his current forest work to head the new organization, after certain other able folks(apes and geckos) turned down the largely figurative position.




• A Prudential Financial Regulator to combine the supervision of banks and thrifts, and make sure that loans are given to people who are 1) citizens 2) have employment income 3) believe in paying loans back 4) can read 5) understand addition and subtraction 6) know what interest is and 7) can spell variable rate, exploding rate, and reset.



In additon to these steps, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would be combined. A backup doomsday style fund would be created in a remote area of Alaska that would build up a complex portfolio of futures, options and various other derivatives balanced to explode in value with any fall in the stock markets, rendering lapses in regulatory enforcement less disastrous.

The Federal reserve would have greater opportunity to review the books of firms across the financial spectrum (from hedge funds to commodity trading exchanges) or any organization posing a threat to American stability. This expanded capability will be handled with care, with instructions to avoid harassing KFC employees during inspections.

But again, this is an election year, so none of this this is likely to matter any time soon. Of course the Democrats, while cautiously receptive to parts of the proposal, are likely to want to be more aggressive in separating Americans from the effects of self induced eve of destruction financial moments.

It would seem that nobody is looking at a long string of actions dating back to the 1990's that have resulted in us being where we are today; our little inflate, boom, bubble, bust, inflate cycle being totally incomprehensible to those who want to be up at 3am on the phone, saving the country.

"Smokey, this is Hillary. Yes. The Vice President. Me and Obama are worried. And hungry. Can you contact Bernanke at the Fed and send them down to KFC to check the books, and have them bring us back a couple of six piece meals. All white meat. What? Yes. They are open 24 hours".

Weekend in China

Shanghai Daily reports the IMF rebalancing member voting power to better reflect emerging powers like India, China, Brazil, Mexico and South Korea.

Yum! Brands is raising KFC prices across its 2,500 Chinese restaurants as costs rise for raw material, labor, water and electricity. Other fast food retailers, like McDonald's, have done the same, according to China Daily.

China continues to make environmental improvement an important part of how officials are judged at the provincial level (Shanghai Daily).

The Economic Observer Online reports:

On March 18, an urgent investor strategy report was rushed to clients of one Chinese securities sompany. China's A-share market had entered its twelfth straight week of decline, instilling many investors with fear and panic. The report did not offer consolation.

Huaqiu, an alias for an investor that received the report through a third party, was startled at how radically different its contents were from a concurrent public announcement made by the firm which said that falling stocks would soon bottom out. According to Huaqiu, the privately distributed report was much more pessimistic.

and

Sources from People's Insurance Company of China Group (PICC) said that if the government did not lend a hand, the market would continue to decline, and that if the large caps fell below 3,000 points, it could jeopardize the social stability.

We can see some interesting bubble comparisons being made over at Maoxian, and how a bursting bubble might look.